Alice Liu, Head of Research at CoinMarketCap, on Tuesday said that crypto has entered a phase of high fear, high volatility, and cautions that Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) next true expansion cycle may not arrive until 2026.
What Happened: In an interview at Blockchain week, Liu pointed to Bitcoin's recent drop below $85,000, sending the Fear & Greed sentiment gauge plunging to a record-low 11 — "extreme fear."
The long-anticipated October bull run never materialized, liquidity remains thin, and prices are moving in exaggerated swings.
Macro uncertainty combined with institutional retracement — including roughly $2.8 billion in November ETF outflows — are suppressing demand and making 2025 a high-risk year.
Liu's framework tracks three dimensions:
- Macro: liquidity and interest-rate direction
- Flows: ETF and institutional positioning
- On-chain: wallet activity and supply dynamics
Currently, macro and flow metrics are weak, she warns, and year-end tends to bring portfolio rebalancing rather than fresh deployment.
In short, she advises not to expect a Santa rally — survival and selective accumulation are the priorities.
Also Read: Ripple CEO Says Bitcoin Can Hit $180,000 By End Of 2026
What’s Next: Despite near-term stress, Liu is cautiously optimistic about a stronger setup forming in 2026.
She highlights three sectors likely to outperform when the next cycle ignites:
- Prediction markets — real utility, fast-growing user adoption
- Perpetual DEXs — rising volumes and more sophisticated use cases
- Next-gen stablecoin and yield strategies — cleaner design and stronger risk controls
She also expects CBDCs and institutional-grade RWA/L1 infrastructure to accelerate as baseline financial rails.
On Bitcoin's long-term arc, Liu dismisses imminent existential risks — including quantum threats, and believes developers will adapt as needed.
The next five years, she says, still look constructive for BTC's evolution.
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