US Recession Odds Tumble To 23% On Crypto Betting Market After Trump Confirms China Trade Deal, Softer Inflation Numbers

U.S. recession odds slipped further on Polymarket as a slew of bullish events lifted investor sentiment Wednesday.

What happened: Odds in favor of the betting contract titled “US recession in 2025?” were 23% as of this writing, a considerable drop from the all-time high of 66% recorded in early May.

As of this writing, bookmakers have invested over $6.76 million on the bet. The outcome resolves to “Yes” if the economy experiences another quarter of negative growth or if the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession before January 1, 2026.

Note that Polymarket, based on Polygon POL/USD, is not available to U.S. residents due to regulatory restrictions. The prediction platform allows users to bet on events using cryptocurrency.

Why It Matters: The dip in recession likelihood comes after President Donald Trump finalized a trade agreement with China, following two days of negotiations in London.

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Additionally, the Consumer Price Index came softer than expected in May, calming investor jitters about tariff-induced inflation.

Notably, the recession odds hit a record high after the first-quarter GDP contracted. However, tariff de-escalation between the U.S. and China, which included a 90-day truce and a subsequent trade agreement in Geneva, helped to reverse the trend.

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