Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is entering what could be the most transformative phase in its history, with full-scale robotaxi production set to begin in 2026, marking the company’s boldest step yet toward an autonomous, AI-driven future.
As Musk shifts Tesla’s focus beyond electric vehicles to robotics and self-driving technology, the automaker is betting its next wave of growth on scaling its AI ecosystem and redefining transportation itself.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reiterated an Outperform rating on Tesla on Monday, maintaining a $600 price forecast. He described 2026 as a pivotal year for Musk and the company as Tesla transitions into its autonomous and robotics phase.
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Ives said investors are divided over how quickly the robotaxi opportunity can scale following Tesla’s recent launch activity in Austin. He expects the company to accelerate robotaxi deployment across the U.S., with volume production of Cybercabs beginning as early as April or May.
According to Ives, autonomous driving and robotics will be central to Tesla’s strategy in 2026, with Musk leading the company into its next growth phase as a “wartime CEO.” He expects robotaxis to be rolled out in more than 30 U.S. cities next year.
Regulatory Tailwinds And AI Opportunity
Ives estimates Tesla’s AI and autonomous opportunity alone could be worth at least $1 trillion. He expects Tesla’s key initiatives to gain momentum over the next three to six months as federal regulatory barriers around Full Self-Driving and autonomy begin to ease under the Trump administration.
Trump has emphasized keeping the U.S. ahead of China in the global AI race, with autonomous technology viewed as a critical battleground. Ives anticipates changes to the federal framework that would expand the authority of national regulators while limiting state-level control, potentially through an executive order.
Valuation Upside And Market Share Ambitions
Looking ahead, Ives projects Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market capitalization in 2026, with a bull-case scenario of $3 trillion as full-scale production ramps across its autonomous and robotics roadmap. He sets a bull-case stock price of $800.
Tesla’s AI-driven valuation is starting to unlock, with broader Full Self-Driving adoption and accelerating Cybercab deployment in the U.S. emerging as the “golden goose” for Musk & Co. that could drive value over the next six to nine months, the analyst said.
More Than An Automaker
Ives reiterated that Tesla should not be viewed solely as a car company, but as a global disruptive technology leader. He said the past five years laid the groundwork for this strategy, with 2026 marking the start of Tesla’s most important chapter: an autonomous, AI-powered future.
He also pointed to Musk’s new pay package and a potential stake in xAI as additional catalysts for Tesla’s AI strategy, naming the stock a core holding on the IVES AI 30 list.
Ives projects fourth-quarter revenue of $23.37 billion and earnings per share of 43 cents.
TSLA Price Action: Tesla shares were up 3.69% at $475.87 at the time of publication on Monday. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $488.53, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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