Recently Listed Tvardi Therapeutics' Lead Drug 'Positioned To Drive Broad Improvement', Analyst Sees Over 150% Stock Upside

Newly public Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. TVRD is capturing investor attention following its recent reverse merger with Cara Therapeutics, Inc.

In April, the company completed its previously announced merger with Cara Therapeutics. Tvardi is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing oral small-molecule therapies targeting STAT3 to treat fibrosis-driven diseases.

STAT3 is a central mediator across critical fibrotic signaling pathways that drive uncontrolled deposition, proliferation, survival, and immune suppression.

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With the initial merger announcement, Tvardi completed a previously announced private placement financing of approximately $28 million from a syndicate of new and existing institutional investors.

Its lead candidate, TTI-101, is in a Phase 2 trial for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and a Phase 1b/2 trial for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). 

With Tvardi’s existing cash and approximately $24 million of Cara cash at closing, Tvardi is expected to have sufficient cash to fund its operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements, as currently planned, into the second half of 2026, including through its two anticipated Phase 2 data readouts.

On Thursday, Piper Sandler initiated coverage on Tvardi Therapeutics. “TTI-101 is positioned to drive broad improvement with an optimal profile,” analyst Yasmeen Rahimi said.

Rahimi mentioned that TTI-101 is a differentiated small molecule that inhibits STAT3 nuclear function but has no impact on non-canonical STAT3 mitochondrial function (given non-covalent bonding).

Thus, TTI-101 is uniquely positioned to drive meaningful anti-fibrotic effects for IPF at cellular and immune levels, given STAT3’s broad effects on clotting/coagulation, inflammatory cell migration, fibroblast proliferation, and ECM deposition (vs. typical therapies only targeting one aspect), the analyst asserted.

Piper has initiated an Overweight rating with a price forecast of $78, with an upside of over 150%.

TTI-101 is also de-risked with robust preclinical evidence showing lung fibrosis reduction and stat sig oxygen saturation improvements, Rahimi pointed out.

Further, the analyst highlighted that TVRD is also developing TTI-109 (a next-gen STAT3 inhibitor) with optimized delivery, enhanced patent protection, and an IND filed in June 2025.

Price Action: TVRD stock is trading higher by 2.56% to $26.89 at last check Thursday.

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