Saia, Inc. (NASDAQ:SAIA) stock fell on Wednesday as investors weighed mixed fourth-quarter freight trends against confidence in the company's long-term national expansion strategy.
Earlier this month, Saia provided fourth-quarter LTL operating data, where it said October LTL shipments and tonnage per workday fell year over year, while weight per shipment inched higher.
In November, shipments and tonnage per workday rose, but weight per shipment slipped versus last year.
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Bank of America Securities analyst Ken Hoexter reiterated the Neutral rating on the stock, raising the price forecast from $322 to $367, reflecting confidence in Saia's long-term national growth trajectory.
Analyst Hoexter said Saia's mid-fourth-quarter update showed sub-seasonal tons per day, as October weakness offset November strength, with December expected to be softer.
Mix Headwinds And Regional Pressure Persist
Unfavorable mix persisted, led by Los Angeles volumes, Saia's largest revenue market, which remains down nearly 20% year over year.
Hoexter noted growth came mainly from shorter, lower-revenue lanes as Saia expands nationally, versus its historical longer-haul profile.
Contract Visibility Improves
The analyst added that customers now discuss 2026 contract levels with more certainty, citing stabilizing tax policy, interest rates, and tariff expectations.
Per Hoexter, Saia still sees no meaningful freight shifting from truckload into LTL, despite tightening truckload capacity conditions.
He attributed truckload pressure to regulatory enforcement, equipment constraints, lower truck orders, and rising carrier bankruptcies.
Operating Ratio Outlook Maintained
The analyst said management maintained its fourth-quarter operating ratio target, expecting a larger seasonal deterioration than historical averages.
He kept his operating ratio forecast unchanged, noting that Saia continues to outperform peers on tons-per-day growth during network expansion.
The analyst reiterated a Neutral rating on Saia while raising the price forecast to $367 from $322, reflecting a higher 2026 earnings multiple of 33x, up from 29x.
The valuation sits slightly above Saia's five-year range to account for its ongoing transition into a national carrier, supported by improving yields and network integration, including 39 new terminals added since 2022.
Earnings expectations were left unchanged, with the analyst maintaining fourth-quarter 2025 EPS of $1.88 and 2026 EPS of $11.10.
SAIA Price Action: Saia shares were down 2.05% at $332.82 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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