Under Armour Faces Tough Road Ahead, Says Analyst

Telsey Advisory Group analyst Cristina Fernandez reiterated a Market Perform rating on Under Armour Inc.‘s UAA shares on Wednesday.

She lowered the price forecast from $10.00 to $7.00.

The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter FYF25 earnings on Tuesday, May 13 before the markets open.

Ahead of Under Armour’s upcoming fourth-quarter FY25 results next week, the analyst’s focus will be on several key areas: underlying demand patterns during the quarter and expectations moving into FY26, how consumers are responding to new product offerings,

The brand must also address tariff pressures, mainly 10% duties from Asian regions. The brand has minimal exposure (around 3%) to Chinese imports.

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Fernandez has trimmed FY26 estimates. She lowered her EPS estimate to 35 cents from 40 cents (FS $0.36), with a revenue decline of 1.3% vs. 0.7% previously (FS -0.4%). Operating margins should expand ~50 bps to 4.3% vs. 4.9% previously (FS 4.1%), she added.

Fernandez also anticipates continued sales softness in the first half of fiscal 2026. Under Armour is working to streamline SKUs and reduce discounting in both the North American and Asia-Pacific (APAC) markets.

The analyst sees room for recovery by Q4 of 2026, supporting the forecast for a 1.3% overall revenue decline. This is paired with a 50 basis point improvement in operating margin, bringing it to 4.3%.

The company boosted its 2025 EPS outlook, but revenue growth remains uncertain. Challenges in North America and APAC remain, as well as intense competition and cautious consumer behavior.

To become more optimistic about the stock, the analyst needs more details on distribution strategies.

Price Action: Under Armour shares traded lower by 0.70% at $5.65 at last check Wednesday.

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