Rivian Q1 Earnings Preview: Analyst Estimates, R2 Update, Key Production Focus Areas

Zinger Key Points
  • Rivian reports first-quarter financial results on Tuesday, May 7.
  • An update on the R2 and production guidance could be among the key topics for investors.

Electric vehicle company Rivian Automotive RIVN will report first-quarter financial results after market close Tuesday.

Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Rivian to report first-quarter revenue of $1.16 billion, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company reported revenue of $661.0 million in last year's quarter. Rivian has beaten estimates from analysts for revenue in seven of the last 10 quarters. A miss in the fourth quarter was the first miss on the analysts' estimate for revenue by Rivian in eight quarters.

Analysts expect Rivian to report a loss of $1.17 per share in the first quarter, compared to a loss of $1.25 in last year's first quarter.

What Analysts Are Saying: A question on demand for electric vehicles saw Needham analyst Chris Pierce lower the price target from $18 to $13 on Rivian in April.

The analyst, who has a Buy rating on Rivian, said demand for the R1S is better than feared, but long-term demand remains a key question.

"R1S used vehicle pricing came in better than feared in our used EV OEM price tracker, and although price decreases are expected as used supply grows, we haven't seen any data that points to a steep drop-off in demand," Pierce said.

The analyst updates delivery estimates after the unveiling of the R2 vehicle with estimates for 2026 (154,378) and 2027 (237,037) ahead of consensus estimates.

Pierce also notes that the TAM (total addressable market) for Rivian will expand with the R2 and R3. The R2, however, is "not a near-term catalyst."

"We see RIVN as the best positioned EV OEM in our coverage, with the bridge to the TAM expanding R2 vehicle sturdier as the company reduces its planned capex by pushing out the timing of the build-out of its Georgia plant."

The analyst also said Rivian starting with a clean slate in the electric vehicle market, versus legacy automakers transitioning, could benefit the company when it comes to supply chain and manufacturing.

Here are other recent analyst ratings on Rivian and their price targets.

  • Truist: Hold rating, lowered price target from $11 to $10
  • Barclays: Equal-Weight rating, lowered price target from $12 to $10
  • UBS: Upgrades from Sell to Neutral, $9 price target
  • Morgan Stanley: Overweight rating, lowered price target from $14 to $13
  • Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight rating, $23 price target

Key Items to Watch: One of the key items to watch will be production and delivery updates. The company previously announced that first-quarter production was 13,980 vehicles and deliveries were 13,588 vehicles.

Guidance from the company for the full year calls for production of 57,000 vehicles. An update on that figure could be anticipated from investors and analysts.

Rivian unveiled the R2 and R3 vehicles in a company event in March. The event was well received and investors and analysts could be looking for an update on how reservations for the R2 are tracking.

The company said in the last reported quarter that it was focused on cost efficiency and gross profit per delivered vehicle. Those metrics could be closely monitored in the first quarter results.

RIVN Price Action: Rivian shares trade at $10.33 versus a 52-week trading range of $8.26 to 82.06. Rivian shares are down 56% year-to-date in 2024.

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Photo courtesy of Rivian.

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