Analyst's Verdict on Legend Biotech: Doubts On Commercial Execution, Long- Term Market Share

  • William Blair initiated coverage on Legend Biotech Corporation LEGN with a rating of Market Perform.
  • The analyst says that Legend’s valuation adequately reflects projected Carvykti revenues and the current stage of Legend’s other pipeline programs. 
  • It notes that Carvykti’s commercial launch has faced several hiccups by limited vector supply, reduced manufacturing slots due to ongoing clinical trials, and a higher-than-expected percentage of out-of-spec product. 
  • Legend/Janssen is working to solve these facets and expects to be able to support about 10,000 patients annually by the end of 2025, critical to achieving $5 billion in sales. 
  • Legend estimates that second-line setting patients for Carvykti will eventually generate three-fourths of its sales. 
  • William Blair also says that though the multiple myeloma market is large enough to support multiple players, emerging BCMA-targeted products could decrease Carvykti’s market share and impact its revenue tail.
  • Legend’s stock will trade in line with the broader market unless it becomes increasingly evident that Carvykti sales are not meeting or are superseding the Street’s expectations.
  • Earlier today, Legend Biotech submitted a supplemental marketing application for Carvykti to the European Medicines Agency based on a CARTITUDE-4 study for adult patients with relapsed and lenalidomide-refractory multiple myeloma who have received one to three prior lines of therapy.
  • Price Action: LEGN shares are down 3.00% at $64.06 on the last check Thursday.
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