Autodesk Might Have Short Term Pain, But Analysts Are Bullish With Trimmed Expectations

Keybanc analyst Jason Celino maintained Autodesk, Inc ADSK with an Overweight and lowered the price target from $264 to $237.
Autodesk missed 3Q results and lowered 4Q guidance to reflect various reasons, including FX, European macro, and potentially faster transition to annual billing.
As expected, the Company provided "breadcrumbs" for FY24 commentary by highlighting growth, margins, and FCF headwinds.
The analyst cut FY24 estimates and price target. However, Celino saw some consolation in growth prospects like FX and a buyback boost to $5 billion.
Rosenblatt analyst Blair Abernethy reiterated a Buy and reduced the price target from $270 to $235.
Autodesk reported Q3 results that were just below his revenue expectations.
Abernethy marginally trimmed his FY23 forecast, cut his FY24 revenue growth outlook as forex headwinds, and slightly decelerated new business demand in EMEA and APAC took effect.
The analyst expects the stock to be under pressure in the near term.
RBC Capital analyst Matthew Hedberg reaffirmed an Outperform and cut the price target from $260 to $225.
Hedberg writes the initial FY24 FCF guide next quarter could be closer to $1.2 billion versus consensus at $1.5 billion as FY24 billings growth likely declines due to fewer multi-year contracts.
Hedberg likes the long-term opportunity for predictable growth and margin improvement.
Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries maintained an Overweight and $242 price target.
Jeffries said he was a buyer of ADSK shares after the Q3 results. The weakness in shares was due to elevated expectations and the optics around a $125 million reduction to FY23 Billings weakness, which is mainly due to multi-year mix rather than reduced demand.
Jeffries reduced his FY23 & FY24 estimates on continued currency pressures.
Price Action: ADSK shares traded lower by 6.24% at $195.84 on the last check Tuesday.

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