Dropbox Requires Significant Measures And Time To Resolve Go-To-Market Rigor, Product Integration, Analyst Says

  • Credit Suisse analyst Rich Hilliker initiates coverage on Dropbox, Inc DBX with an Underperform rating and a price target of $20.
  • Over nearly two decades, Dropbox has created a thoughtful, well-architected platform and amassed an impressive following with strong brand recognition. 
  • He appreciated what Dropbox has built profoundly and expects the company to remain visible in the content collaboration and services landscape.
  • Yet he also questioned the company's ability to capture the future share of content workloads meaningfully as he saw significant measures and time to resolve its lackluster go-to-market rigor and product integration and add compelling platform depth. 
  • He believes Dropbox's intention and vision are much more mature than its level of integration, the sophistication of its go-to-market strategy, and suitable product packaging today. 
  • He avidly believes a company must spend to grow, and Dropbox's model confirms it. 
  • Accordingly, net new paid customer additions have moderated, and Dropbox's magic number and burn productivity have consistently declined, suggesting productivity is stalling. 
  • He believes the integration efforts of HelloSign and DocSend are in the early stages, with redundant systems, a fragmented sales force, and utterly distinct branding until October 2022. 
  • The analyst believes this is due, in part, to consistent leadership turnover, with nearly ten named senior executives departing the firm in the past four years. 
  • Finally, except for free cash flow, results have already achieved its 2024 guidance – suggesting only marginal investment to accelerate product innovation to combat feature commoditization, go-to-market improvements, and increase its platform power.
  • Price Action: DBX shares traded lower by 0.78% at $22.22 on the last check Tuesday.
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