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Alder BioPharma Could Lead The Migraine Market; Brean Assumes With Buy Rating

Alder BioPharma Could Lead The Migraine Market; Brean Assumes With Buy Rating

Alder Biopharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ALDR) is set to lead in the migraine market, at least according to Brean Capital, which has assumed coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and price target of $45.

The company's lead product candidate, ALD403, a novel monoclonal antibody delivered intravenously and indicated for migraine prevention, is entering two late-stage trials for frequent episodic migraines (FEM) and chronic migraines (CM).

The brokerage noted the recent Phase IIb results showing sustained efficacy of a 75 percent reduction in migraine days per month in one-third of enrolled patients.

The two Phase III trials are Prevention of Migraine via Intravenous ALD403 Safety and Efficacy 1 (Promise 1) for FEM, which has an expected readout in first half of 2017, and Promise 2 for CM, which is slated to initiate in the second half of 2016.

Related Link: Brean Likes Nektar Therapeutics' Upcoming Launches, Assumes Coverage At Buy

"We anticipate ALD403 US drug sales reaching $1 billion annually well before patent expiration in 2032," analyst Difei Yang wrote in a note.

Yang noted that the ALD403 has huge market potential as recent data from Migraine Research Foundation says each year in the United States about 10 million to 14 million adults experience frequent or chronic migraines, leading to nearly $13 billion in lost productivity in the United States alone.

"A primary advantage of ALDR403 vs. other close-to-market CGRP's is its dosing schedule, which consists of a single IV treatment every 3 months. The remaining 3 CGRP's in late-stage development rely on monthly subcutaneous injections," Yang continued.

At present, there are no liquidity concerns as the company's $450 million in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments should support operations through the second half of 2018.

Meanwhile, Alder will face potential competition from Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), which recently announced positive top-line data for Erenumab from a Phase III study.

Shares of Alder fell 6.18 percent on Thursday to close at $31.29. The $45 target price represents a potential upside of 44 percent.

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Latest Ratings for ALDR

Sep 2019DowngradesBuyHold
Sep 2019ReiteratesNeutral
Sep 2019ReiteratesNeutral

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