Market Overview

HSBC's Top 10 Market Risks For 2016

HSBC's Top 10 Market Risks For 2016

In a new report, HSBC analyst Fredrik Nerbrand named the firm’s top 10 market risks for 2016. Here’s a breakdown of the list.

2016's Top 10 Risks

1. U.S. Capex Recovery

In this scenario, U.S. labor markets will continue to improve leading to strong profits, higher capital spending, wage growth and further Fed tightening. Both European equity prices and global commodity prices would benefit.

Related Link: Barron's Recap: Top Picks For 2016

2. Emerging Markets Capital Flows Spike

In China, structural reforms and loose monetary conditions will lead to a resurgence in demand for European goods. This scenario would be good news for emerging market assets and high-yielding currencies and commodities.

3. Policy Paralysis

Regulators see diminishing returns from market policy until they eventually become ineffective altogether, rendering regulators helpless to influence global markets. Yield curves would flatten, credit spreads would rise and stocks would fall.

4. Supply-Led Oil Price Increase

OPEC is near full production capacity, and the rest of the global oil producers are positioned for a major production decline in 2016, which means any unexpected production disruption could result in a spike in oil prices.

5. U.K. Votes For Brexit

The 2016 U.K. referendum results in the country leaving the eurozone. European large-cap stocks would likely benefit and volatility surrounding the referendum date would explode.

6. Periphery Issues Rise Again

Spain, Portugal and Greece continue to make headlines and fear over eurozone exit contagion takes hold in equity markets.

7. More Frequent Flash Crashes

The perfect storm of intense regulation, dealer balance sheet constraints and high-frequency trading will produce more and more flash crashes in the future.

8. China Corporate Defaults Rise

The slumping industrial sector pays the price for overcapacity and price deflation, and the corporate default level rises.

Related Link: Highlights From Barclays' 2016 Top Picks List

9. U.S. Recession

A downturn in profits hits the United States hard. U.S. Treasury yields would collapse. High yield names would outperform, while IT, materials, energy and industrials lag.

10. Fed Policy Error

A great deal of uncertainty surrounds the conclusion of the years-long zero interest rate policy in the United States. However, if the Fed moves to soon, both bond and equities would likely plummet. In this scenario, buying the U.S. dollar against emerging market currencies could be a strategy that works.

Image Credit: Public Domain


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