Nomura's Takeways From Biogen's Analyst Meeting

Ian Somayia on Friday commented in a note that Biogen's BIIB management team during a recent analyst meeting pointed to potential reasons for the recent slowdown in Ecfidera uptake. Biogen noted: 1) The burst of active switching caused by Tecfidera's launch has returned to normal levels; 2) the whole MS market is slowing; 3) some possible impact from the PML case; and 4) Plegidry launch could be taking Avonex switchers that previously would have switched to Tecfidera. Biogen believes the slowdown is likely temporary, and historically the overall MS market bounce back after 2-3 months. Somayia stated that the company's 2015 financial guidance which is expected to be presented during the company's fourth quarter earnings report in January will “be key to investors keeping Biogen as a core holding.” The analyst adds that he would look to become more positive on shares if low probability events in 2015 such as Tysabri in SPMS and BIIB037 in lupus nephritis have positive results or U.S. Tecfidera resumes a healthy pace of adoption. Shares are Neutral rated with a $378 price target.