Payroll Data Forecasts In Doubt Following ADP Report's Upside Surprise

Forecasts of monthly non-farm payroll data expected Thursday were thrown into turmoil by an upside surprise from a similar private survey. Analysts anticipate on average that numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will creep up only slightly, showing 215,000 new jobs added in June compared with 217,000 reported in May. The consensus calls for no change to May's 6.3 percent unemployment rate. Street estimates range from a high 290,00 new jobs to a low 145,000. But doubts were raised about the current consensus by Wednesday's surprisingly high employment data released by payroll processor Automatic Data Processing ADP. The ADP report showed 281,000 jobs added in June, versus a consensus calling for 210,000. ING's Rob Carnell is among those who believe ADP's Wednesday report may prove misleading. He recalled that November 2012 last saw a similar spike in the ADP survey. "However, back then, the ADP report gave a false signal for non-farm payrolls, which were virtually unchanged from the previous month" Carnell said in a note carried on FXStreet.com. Of perhaps greater importance to the markets than employment will be wage trends revealed in Thursday's report. "Any hint that wages are beginning to pick up could seriously change the market's perceptions about inflation risk and Fed policy," Carnell said.