Trump's Tariffs Won't Bring Back Manufacturing Jobs, Says Wells Fargo, Citing Labor Shortages And Rising Costs

President Donald Trump's efforts to revive domestic manufacturing via tariffs are unlikely to generate a significant number of new jobs, according to experts from Wells Fargo.

While the policy aims to bring industrial activity back to the U.S., they say the calculations do not add up.

What Happened: Wells Fargo's analysis indicates major roadblocks facing a widespread comeback of industrial employment, according to CNBC.

Companies are likely to encounter high labor expenses if they relocate production domestically. Many firms are unable or reluctant to bear these costs.

Additionally, analysts note a shortage of qualified production workers. "A meaningful increase in factory jobs does not appear likely in the foreseeable future, in our view," said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo. She highlighted that unpredictability surrounding government policy could further put firms off from hiring new workers.

Why It Matters: Despite Trump's wide-ranging tariff measures, which are now at their highest level since the 1940s, as well as promises of corporate tax breaks, the ground reality is different.

Analysts note that key tech firms like Nvidia Corp. NVDA and Apple Inc. AAPL have announced investments in U.S.-based facilities, but these high-profile cases are the anomaly, not the rule. Currently, the U.S. has 12.8 million industrial jobs, still millions less than the sector’s 1979 peak.

According to Wells Fargo, even if every unemployed individual in the U.S. were recruited tomorrow, the workforce would still fall short by more than 14 million.

The bank concludes that "returning U.S. manufacturing employment to a level that remotely resembles its historical peak will be an uphill battle", even as industry insiders warn that AI is gutting entry-level jobs, leaving Gen Z workers entering the workforce at risk.

In a survey published last month, 80% of Americans said the country would be better off with more manufacturing jobs. Another survey revealed that only 14% of Gen Z workers would be interested in a manufacturing role.

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