Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz Says 'Stay Buckled' Amid Market Turmoil – 'It's Just A Question Of Whether Th

"Stay buckled. It's just a question of whether the airbags come out now," Carlyle Group (NASDAQ:CG) chief Harvey Schwartz told Bloomberg in an interview on April 17. While tariffs have turned jetliners around mid-air and slowed parcel traffic, Schwartz insists the real hazard is the uncertainty most observers cannot see.

His warning landed as the U.S. and China traded blows that lifted some levies to 145% and stretched supply chains well beyond breaking points for some manufacturers.

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Buckle Up For Whiplash

The trade scuffle's first casualty was aviation. Reuters reported that a $55 million Boeing 737 MAX (NYSE:BA) painted for Xiamen Airlines left Renton, Washington, on April 18 but returned to Seattle the next evening after a 125% duty made the deal financially unviable for the Chinese carrier.

On April 20, DHL said it would halt business-to-consumer shipments over $800 to the U.S. due to new customs rules, effective April 21. Delays hit lower-value parcels too. After discussions with U.S. authorities, DHL resumed shipments soon after, following adjustments that eased processing of higher-value entries.

Policymakers see the stress, too. On April 22, the International Monetary Fund released its updated World Economic Outlook, lowering its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8%—a 0.5 percentage point decrease from January.

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IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said global trade growth could be "more than halved" to 1.7% in 2025 if tariffs persist. He also said the U.S. growth forecast was trimmed to 1.8%, citing heightened uncertainty.

History shows why the C-suite are skittish. The tariff volley that began in 2018 lopped roughly $1.7 billion off U.S. quarterly farm exports within months—a reminder of how friction can slice revenue.

The S&P 500 experienced significant intraday volatility on April 8. The index surged by 4.1% in early trading, only to reverse course and decline by 3% later in the day, closing down 1.6%.

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In a separate Bloomberg interview, Schwartz emphasized that while a recession is “certainly on the table,” it’s premature to make a definitive judgment. He highlighted that the primary concern isn’t just the tariffs themselves but the pervasive uncertainty they introduce, which stalls decision-making and chills economic activity.

Schwartz said that CEOs are shifting from growth strategies to contingency planning amid the volatility.

He stressed the importance of the U.S. and China finding a cooperative equilibrium to stabilize global trade, warning that prolonged tensions could have far-reaching implications beyond immediate market disruptions.

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