Alarm Bells For Nvidia As $9.8 Billion Blow Threatens A Crash: ETFs With Most Risk Or Opportunity

Nvidia NVDA, Wall Street’s AI poster child and heart of the generative tech revolution, may have just experienced a voltage dip. The company’s largest growth driver, its data center revenue, is reportedly heading for a $9.8 billion-sized pothole should capital spending grind to a halt and Chinese demand continue to flatline, according to a new note from Piper Sandler.

Analyst Harsh Kumar cautioned that, worst case, around 6.45% of Nvidia’s data center revenue might be in jeopardy, exposed to capex cuts across data center end markets. If that materializes, he expects the share price to drop to $76.25, assuming a 25x multiple. That’s a far cry from the company’s reaffirmed $150 price target.

So, what’s an ETF investor to do when their artificially intelligent knight starts showing signs of rust? Here’s a glance at the funds that might mitigate the pain, or grab the opportunity.

Also Read: Chipwrecked: Nvidia’s Export Ban Triggers ETF Meltdown (And One Big Winner)

Nvidia Sneezes, They Catch A Cold

VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH – With more than 20% of its positions in NVDA, SMH is essentially a fan club. Wonderful during an AI bubble; dangerous when storms brew.

iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX – Likewise Nvidia-heavy at about 8–10% exposure, it’s a diversified play but still has significant downside risk if the GPU king falls.

Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 1.5X Shares NVDU – For those who prefer their risk leveraged and their stomachs iron-clad.

The bottom line is that these are high-octane plays—gorgeous on the way up, but can’t wait for a seatbelt on the way down.

The Gentle Gliders

ROBO Global Robotics and Automation ETF ROBO – Holds Nvidia, sure, but also a global buffet of robotics, automation, and industrial AI plays.

Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF BOTZ – Nvidia’s in there, but BOTZ offers more geographic diversification.

WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Fund WTAI – A thematic newcomer that bets on AI's long-term arc without going all-in on Nvidia.

Safety First: Dividend & Low-Volatility Tech Funds

First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dividend Index Fund TDIV – Taps income-tech with light exposure to Nvidia.

Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF SPLV – Not tech-narrow, but defensive sanctuary should markets turn down.

Invesco QQQ ETF QQQ – Still owns Nvidia, but watered down by a who’s-who of mega-cap tech; more of a tech index security blanket.

The Contrarians: Betting on a Burnout

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares SOXS – Triple-leveraged short exposure to semis. Not for the faint of heart or long-term holders.

AXS Short Innovation Daily ETF SARK – Playing against the ARK Innovation ETF ARKK, which typically reflects sentiment across names such as Nvidia, Tesla TSLA, etc.

Caveat emptor: These aren’t hedges; they’re tactical nukes. It’s wise to assess your risk appetite before investing.

Also Read: Nvidia, Broadcom Lead Fund Manager Buys Even As Semiconductor Sector Cools: Analysts

The Bigger Picture

Piper Sandler issued a cautionary note, but they remain bullish on Nvidia in the long run, reiterating its Overweight rating. The firm is still the unchallenged leader in AI infrastructure, with increasing sales of its Blackwell AI supercomputers and a strong lead in GPU-based AI acceleration.

However, future Q1 earnings and trade headwinds, particularly new U.S. export controls on AI chips, may test investors’ conviction.

Nvidia will report Q1 in late May, with the Street looking for EPS of $0.89 (a 45% YoY increase) and revenue of $43 billion (a 65% gain), according to Forbes. If these figures hold or even beat to the upside, current pessimism could prove short-lived.

Final Byte

For ETF investors, the Nvidia wobble is not a cause for alarm. It’s a reminder to examine exposure, diversify carefully and perhaps have a few hedges up one’s sleeve. As with everything AI, the future is rosy but perhaps best seen through a slightly risk-adjusted pair of glasses.

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