Market Overview

2014 Coffee Industry Growth and Forecast in US Research Share

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2014 Coffee Industry Growth and Forecast in US Research Share

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Coffee manufacturers face increased competition both from within their own category and from other beverages. Consumers are embracing the choice and variety of coffee options and from other beverages, but with a slowly improving economy, manufacturers will be challenged to maintain consumer interest in in-home coffee consumption.

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Table of Content

Scope and Themes

What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms

Executive Summary

Overview
Quest for flavor and convenience will fuel the coffee category’s continued growth
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2009-19
Coffeehouse flavors could inspire in-home options
Figure 2: Top 10 coffee types menued at coffeehouses and donut shops, by incidence, Q3 2010-Q3 2013
Consumers of all types drink less coffee as the day progresses
Figure 3: Time of day for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014
Multi-serve drip coffee makers remain the norm in most households
Figure 4: Coffee brewer ownership, by generations, June 2014
Convenience, ease of use lead reasons behind choice of coffee machine
Figure 5: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by gender and age, June 2014
Roast coffee share slips, while single-cup gains
Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19, in millions
Single-cup coffee, RTD companies offset declines from roast, instant manufacturers
Figure 7: MULO market share of coffee sales, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending June 15, 2014
Consumers aged 18-34 most likely to drink single-cup, RTD coffee
Figure 8: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by gender and age, June 2014
Potential for healthy coffee innovation
Figure 9: Any Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by any consumption of coffee, June 2014
What we think

Issues and Insights

Pods could resonate with older consumers, though perhaps not single-cup
Issue
Insight: Forthcoming pod carafe machines could entice older consumers to the pod
Energy drinks emerge as coffee substitute – can they take over coffee’s turf?
Issue
Insight: Coffee can serve as a natural energy booster
Can RTD coffees expect the same growth as single-cup?
Issue
Insight: RTDs should capitalize on Millennial interest with flavorful coffees that embrace other attributes

Trend Applications

Trend: Who are the Joneses?
Trend: Minimize Me
Trend: Secret, Secret

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Market Size and Forecast

Key points
Coffee growing but slowing
Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Single-cup propels the coffee category to continued growth
Figure 12: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2008-18
Forecast methodology

Market Drivers

Key points
Commodity prices of coffee rise dramatically
Figure 13: Monthly average price for raw coffee supplies, January 2012-June 2014
Millennials growing and embracing quick, convenient options
Figure 14: US population, by generation share, 2014
Diverse population drinking a diversity of coffee drinks
Figure 15: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume (mean), by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014

Competitive Context

Key points
Energy drinks, CSDs compete for coffee’s caffeine benefit
Figure 16: Reasons for drinking energy drinks, by age, June 2014
Foodservice steals in-home coffee occasions by promoting premium and specialty coffee drinks
Figure 17: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014
Figure 18: Top 10 coffee types menued at coffeehouses and donut shops, by incidence, Q3 2010-Q3 2013
Figure 19: Drivers for coffeehouses and donut shops, by day parts, September 2013
Tea has caffeine plus a healthier reputation
Figure 20: Attitudes and behaviors toward tea, by generations, any agree responses May 2014

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