Technical Forecast for Energy Futures
WTI Crude Oil tested good support at 95.05/94.90 & shot higher straight to 96.90/97.10 resistance. If this continues to hold a bearish topping pattern remains in place and we should head back to 96.56 then 96.288/18. Below here look for 95.72/67 then good support again at 95.05/94.90. A break lower today confirms the bearish topping pattern with 94.40 targeted then 94.05/90. Below here we should see 93.26 but we do expect to see 91.72 before we bottom out in the days to come.
However a break above 97.21 takes us to 97.50, possibly a retest of 98.15/25 highs.
March Brent held Friday’s range below 119.07/17. Below 118.02 we could test yesterday’s low at 117.54 then better support at 117.30. However failure here targets 116.88/72 which should hold the low. If we break lower though look for excellent support at 116.21.
119.07/17 remains tough resistance but a break could then target 119.80/120.00.
Gasoil held Friday’s range, below 1030. The 1029/32 band is a crucial area as it is also 21 month trend line resistance in a severely over bought market. Even in this bull market there is a risk of a top here. A close above 1032 is now needed to continue the run to 1037 then 2012 highs of 1045 where bulls could run in to a big obstacle.
If 1029/32 remains unbeatable we should not see a big sell off just yet but should bounce around with in a range while we take a rest & get ready for the next big move. Initial support is 1025/24 but below here 1019 which managed to hold the downside yesterday but 1016/15 below could provide a floor today. Longs need a stop below 1011 for 1006.
Nat Gas held tested last week’s low at 3.207 & bounced to our first target of 3.293. This has also marked the high so far a but a break above 3.305 could see us achieve 3.327/330 next. If we keep going look for 3.359 which should see us top out for today.
Support at 3.265 could hold any profit taking but below 3.250 risks a retest of 3.207. This should hold the downside again if tested with 5 month trend line support here.
March RBOB has been hovering in a range from 298 up to 307 for almost 2 weeks and we held this range again yesterday. There is a little support today at 301 but below here another test of 299/98 look likely. The daily chart is calling for a correction so watch for a break below 297 to trigger stops on longs for a move to 294.88.
Resistance remains in the 306/307 area but a break &b preferably a close above here then opens the door to 309.22 which should be a very tough obstacle and could hold a rally for now.