Centene Withdraws 2025 Guidance, Shares Dive

Centene Corp CNC shares are tumbling in Tuesday’s after-hours session after the health care company withdrew its guidance for 2025.

What Happened: Centene withdrew its previous 2025 earnings guidance and all underlying guidance elements based on the company’s preliminary interpretation of marketplace data from the independent actuarial firm Wakely.

The company said that overall market growth in 22 of the company’s 29 marketplace states is lower than previously expected and implied aggregate market morbidity in those states is significantly higher than the company’s assumptions for risk adjustment revenue transfer.

Centene’s preliminary analysis of the days resulted in an estimated reduction of its previous full-year net risk adjustment revenue transfer expectations of approximately $1.8 billion, representing an adjusted earnings impact of approximately $2.75 per share.

“The Company does not have information or estimates for its remaining seven Marketplace states, but anticipates, due to the morbidity trends observed in the 22 states, an additional reduction to its net risk adjustment revenue transfer expectation with a corresponding adjusted diluted EPS impact,” the company said.

Centene noted that it began the process of refiling 2026 marketplace rates to reflect a higher projected baseline of marketplace morbidity than previously expected. 

Centene said its Medicaid business has experienced a step-up in medical cost trends. As a result, the company expects the Medicaid Health Benefits Ratio in the second quarter to be higher than the first quarter. Centene also said its Medicare Advantage and Medicare Prescription Drug Plan businesses are performing above expectations in the second quarter.

Centene expects to report second-quarter results on July 25. The company will provide additional insights at that time.

CNC Price Action: Centene shares were down 21.80% at $44.30 in after-hours Tuesday at the time of publication, per Benzinga Pro.

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