Should Call of Duty Be Worried by Battlefield 3's Massive Sales Figures?

Activision's shooter may be the leader, but Electronic Arts has shown that it has what it takes to compete. Yesterday afternoon, Electronic Arts ERTS announced that Battlefield 3, the long-awaited first-person shooter that aims to put a bullet in Call of Duty's head, has sold five million copies in its first week. That's half of the 10 million units shipped, making it the fastest-selling game in Electronic Arts history. Days prior to the game's launch, analysts were predicting that the game would sell between 8.5M and 10M copies by Christmas. With five million already devoured by consumers worldwide, EA could easily eclipse that predicted number, provided it can maintain its momentum. Battlefield 3 And that's where things get tricky, both for the Madden maker and the studio that made Tony Hawk a household name. Activision ATVI is coming into this battle with a beloved powerhouse franchise that has some of the most devoted hardcore gamers on the planet. It is expected to sell more than 20 million copies this year, bringing in another trainload of cash for Activision execs to roll around in. While other Activision franchises (such as Guitar Hero and Tony Hawk's Pro Skater) have withered away, Call of Duty has allowed the company to stay strong, stay profitable, and ensure that the company has a bright future. While some believe that iOS, Android or social gaming is “taking over,” the reality is that console games are still very strong. The market for first-person shooters is plenty large enough to maintain massive sales figures for both Battlefield 3 and the upcoming Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3. But no matter how many copies each game sells, these companies face one significant challenge: there can only be one leader. While many consumers are willing to buy both, there will always be a select group who only buys one of the two games. And it's that group that EA will have to fight the hardest to get. Right now, Battlefield is viewed as the underdog; the new kid on the block who's working harder than anyone to earn our attention – and eventually, our undying devotion. Call of Duty, on the other hand, is seen by some as the gluttonous beast that must be contained. This gives Battlefield an advantage among those who haven't already pledged their allegiance to Activision's long-running series. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 Activision, of course, has an enormously loyal fan base to rely on, ensuring that the next Call of Duty series will sell a ton of copies at launch. How many is a “ton”? In the week leading up to Battlefield 3's release (ending October 22), VGChartz reported that the game had roughly two million pre-orders in North America. Divided by console, the Xbox 360 version had 1.22 million pre-orders, the PlayStation 3 version had 550K pre-orders, and the PC version had 204K pre-orders. At that time, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 had roughly 2.9 million pre-orders. For the week ending October 29, Modern Warfare 3 had soared to roughly 3.4 million pre-orders. At that rate, the game should have at least four million pre-orders by the time it's released, making it very easy for the newest Call of Duty to surpass Battlefield 3's initial sales figures. Still, Electronic Arts' accomplishment is not to be ignored. Considering the fate of other Call of Duty competitors – including Electronic Arts' own Medal of Honor franchise – Battlefield 3 is an unprecedented success story. ACTION ITEMS: Bullish: In my last story on the battle between Battlefield and Call of Duty, I noted that the high sales of these games will only help both companies succeed even further than they already have. But there are additional points to consider:

• With two top-tier first-person shooters on the market, Electronic Arts and Activision could actually grow the overall market.
• This means that publishers of other first-person shooters – such as THQ THQI and Take-Two Interactive TTWO – could benefit in the long run.

Bearish: While Zynga's IPO is (presumably) around the corner, social gaming isn't the only alternate trade for bearish investors to examine:

• In addition to the more hardcore, action-oriented games, casual gaming is also a very big market. Since January, Majesco Entertainment COOL has more than tripled its share price.

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