'There Will Be Universal High Income' — Elon Musk Predicts With 80% Certainty That 'None of Us' Will Have Jobs, But Bill Gates Says It's Too Soon

Elon Musk is doubling down on a future where humans won't need to work—and he's putting a number on it.

At the Viva Technology Conference in Paris in May 23, Musk said that artificial intelligence could eliminate the need for most human jobs within the foreseeable future. Not only did he claim it's likely—he gave it odds.

"In a benign scenario, probably none of us will have a job," Musk said. "There will be universal high income. I'd say there's about an 80% chance that AI advances will lead to a situation where humans will not need to work and will have all they need."

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Musk wasn't referring to basic income just large enough to get by. He called it "universal high income," implying a future where people have access to far more than the bare minimum. But in his view, the economic shift won't be the hardest part. The real challenge will be psychological.

"The question will really be one of meaning," he added. "If a computer and robots can do everything better than you, does your life have meaning?"

This isn't the first time Musk has floated the idea. In 2016, he told CNBC there was a "pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income" due to automation. At the time, the statement felt speculative. Now, he's calling it nearly inevitable.

While Musk imagines a post-work society funded by abundance, Bill Gates remains unconvinced the U.S.—or the world—is anywhere close to ready.

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In a 2017 Reddit AMA, Gates responded to a question about universal basic income by stating, "Even the U.S. isn't rich enough to allow people not to work. Someday we will be, but until then, things like the earned income tax credit will help increase the demand for labor."

That was over seven years ago. And while the pace of AI has exploded since then, there's been no indication that Gates has changed his stance on the economic feasibility of guaranteed income. If anything, his more recent comments have focused on managing disruption, not replacing income.

In March, during an appearance on "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon," Gates said AI will likely replace teachers, doctors, and other professionals "within the next decade." But he stopped short of suggesting a UBI-style solution. Instead, he's continued to advocate for retraining programs and taxation strategies to manage the transition.

Back in 2017, Gates also proposed a "robot tax" as a way to slow the pace of automation and fund support systems for displaced workers. "If a robot comes in to do the same thing [as a human], you'd think we'd tax the robot at a similar level," he told Quartz. That idea, while controversial, remains one of the few detailed funding strategies attached to the automation conversation.

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So what can be inferred from Gates' earlier statement? If the U.S. wasn't rich enough to support universal income in 2017, it certainly hasn't become more financially prepared since. Federal debt is higher. Social programs are strained. And despite economic growth, wage inequality and cost-of-living issues continue to rise. Gates' silence on UBI in recent years may not be a reversal—but it also doesn't suggest the numbers have improved in favor of it.

At the core, both men agree: AI will displace a massive number of jobs. But where Musk sees an urgent need to redefine income and purpose, Gates is still asking whether the system can actually afford to carry everyone without work.

Whether the future looks more like Musk's optimistic vision or Gates' pragmatic slow-roll remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the clock on AI-driven change isn't slowing down—and the debate about how to pay people in a jobless world is only getting louder.

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