As tensions continue to mount in the Middle East, maritime data from the region comprising key global shipping chokepoints is flashing red.
What Happened: On Sunday, X user EndGame Macro, quoted a post sharing data that showed a substantial dip in vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal in recent days.
The downturn spans multiple ship categories, including crude tankers, container ships, and bulk carriers, raising fresh concerns about the mounting geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
The post notes that westbound and eastbound traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is down 10.8% and 11.4%, respectively. Crude oil tanker activity has fallen by 9% in both directions, suggesting weaker flows from Gulf producers to Asia and Europe.
Even steeper declines were reported in chemical and LPG tankers, down 20.4% and 13.6%, respectively, signaling potential demand slumps and industrial slowdown, particularly in China.
Container ship traffic has plunged 21.1% through Hormuz and nearly 31% through the Suez Canal, pointing to either disrupted supply chains or intentional rerouting to avoid perceived threats, alongside rising insurance costs, and potential for disruptions in the region.
At the same time, however, the Cape of Good Hope is absorbing portions of this traffic, with a lower pace of decline, clearly hinting at a shift in trade routes, as vessels steer clear of the Red Sea.
Why It Matters: As tensions continue to flare in the region, markets are watching closely after Iran’s parliament voted to authorize a potential closure of the Hormuz Strait on Sunday.
Such a move, however, is predominantly expected to harm China, which is Iran’s main energy export customer, while the U.S., in contrast, purchases less than 3% of its oil from the Persian Gulf.
China has likewise slammed the U.S. over its strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, saying that it “exacerbated tensions in the Middle East and dealt a heavy blow to the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.”
Price Action: Brent oil futures are up 0.50%, trading at $77.623 a barrel, amid growing concerns of trade disruptions.
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