The Polymarket bettor who turned a $33,000 bet on Venezuela-related developments’ into over $400,000 could be a geopolitical insider, a platform that tracks the top trades on the prediction market said on Sunday.
Trader Executes Laser-Focused Geopolitical Strategy
Sonar Pro analyzed the trader’s moves on X, highlighting an “ultra-concentrated” strategy that focused only on geopolitical events.
The bettor placed wagers on just four outcomes — all tied to Venezuela — including “Maduro out by January 31, 2026” and “US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026.” Sonar Pro found it unusual that, unlike other traders, this entity didn’t gamble anything on sports and cryptocurrency.
“When you see high PnL + Low Predictions + 100% Win Rate, you aren’t looking at a ‘trader.’ You’re looking at Smart Money or a Geopolitical Insider,” Sonar Pro stated.
Sonar Pro stated that the bettor identified the U.S. policy shift early when the broader market was pricing in only 6-7% odds of Maduro’s ouster.
“He isn’t a ‘diamond hand’ dreamer; he's a professional harvesting volatility,” the platform concluded.
See Also: Trump’s Venezuela Strike Raises Odds Of A Broader War With Iran In Crypto Betting Market
‘Insider Trading’ Allegations Arise
Meanwhile, popular on-chain tracking platform Lookonchain also described the development as a “clear case” of insider trading.
Polymarket didn’t immediately return Benzinga’s request for comment.
Not The First Time
Polymarket has been under scrutiny for insider trading in the past, most notably during the 2024 presidential elections. The platform accurately predicted Trump's victory, but concerns about foreign influence and market manipulation dominated headlines.
More recently, former SEC chief of staff Amanda Fischer criticized billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman’s suggestion to NYC Mayor Eric Adams to bet on Cuomo’s Polymarket election odds, calling it “very illegal“.
Polymarket’s founder and CEO, Shayne Coplan, had previously emphasized the accuracy of his platform, stating it to be “the most accurate thing” in mankind. Addressing the possibility of insider trading, he acknowledged the "inevitability" of people seeking an edge in the market.
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