Why Triumph Shares Are Plunging Today

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  • Triumph Group Inc TGI reported a fourth-quarter sales decline of 17.2% year-over-year to $386.65 million, -2% Y/Y on an organic basis, which missed the consensus of $405.19 million.
  • The operating income improved to $38.79 million compared to the loss of $(46.21) million a year ago, and the margin recovered to 10% from -9.9%. Adjusted operating margin expanded by 407 bps to 11.1%.
  • Adjusted EPS was $0.39, missing the consensus of $0.42.
  • Sales by segments: Systems & Support $286.97 million (-4.9% Y/Y) and Aerospace Structures $99.68 million (-39.7% Y/Y).
  • The cash flow provided by operations for the quarter was $32.96 million, and free cash flow was $29.12 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDAP increased to $46.26 million (+39.9% Y/Y), and the margin expanded by 488 bps to 11.9%.
  • Backlog was $1.42 billion, up 6% Y/Y, primarily on commercial narrow-body platforms.
  • FY23 Outlook: Triumph Group expects net sales of $1.2 billion - $1.3 billion versus the consensus of $1.5 billion.
  • The company sees EPS of $0.40 - $0.60, well below the consensus of $1.09. It expects cash used in operations of ($30) million to ($40) million, including core cash flow from operations of $30 million - $45 million.
  • Price Action: TGI shares are trading lower by 18% at $17.94 on the last check Wednesday.
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