New opinion poll results released on Tuesday showed Donald Trump leading the 2024 presidential race in a key swing state, potentially signaling a shift in his favor after recent nationwide polls showed him trailing President Joe Biden.
What Happened: In North Carolina, Trump garnered 48% support compared to Biden’s 46%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters. This state is considered pivotal for the outcome of the 2024 election.
A breakdown by party affiliation revealed that Trump and Biden had strong support within their respective bases, but Trump held a slight advantage among independent voters, with 49% backing him compared to 41% for Biden.
The poll surveyed 1,401 North Carolina registered voters from April 4-8, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
Expanding the ballot to include independent and Green Party candidates, Trump extended his lead over Biden to three percentage points, with a tally of 41%-38%. Independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West received 12% and 3% support, respectively, while Green Party candidate Stein was backed by 3% of respondents.
Given that the leads were within the margin of error, the pollster emphasized that there was no clear leader.
“With overall voter enthusiasm for Biden and Trump lukewarm at best, close to 1 in 5 North Carolina voters look at third-party candidates with open minds and the potential to throw a wrench into the works in a close race,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Respondents gave Biden a negative job approval rating, with 38% approving of his job as president while 60% disapproved.
Key Election Issues: When probed on the key election issue of the economy, 31% said the nation’s economy these days was either excellent or good, while 67% said it wasn’t either so good or was poor. Fifty-three percent said the the national economy was getting worse, 24% said it remained the same and 23% said it was getting better.
That said, 60% described their financial situation as either excellent or good, while 38% said it wasn’t either not so good or was poor.
“It’s a head-scratcher when you do the math. Sixty percent of North Carolina’s voters say they are doing just fine financially, but a whopping 67% say the nation’s economy is in bad shape,” said Malloy.
Also, 63% said abortion should be legal in either all cases or most cases and 30% said they think abortion should be illegal in either most cases or all cases.
Why It’s Important: Early indications point to a neck-on-neck race in 2024. This is clearly due to the disgruntlement toward the nominees from both sides of the aisle. While Biden’s age, his mental acuity, and his handling of immigration and the regional wars that are raging in Europe and the Middle East weigh him down, Trump is seen by some as a threat to democracy due to his extremist stance.
The former president is also stymied by civil and criminal cases he is left to contend with. The financial burden of fighting these cases, especially the civil cases, has made campaign donors cautious about funding him.
It is against this backdrop, that the position of swing states assumes importance. North Carolina, along with Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are considered swing states in the 2024 election. These states have swung back and forth between Republicans and Democrats in recent years and are often referred to as “battleground states,” with candidates typically doubling up campaign efforts there to gain an edge.
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This illustration was generated using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.
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