Biden Vs. Trump Showdown May Edge Towards A Slim Victory For This Candidate — How Crucial Are Swing Votes For The Incumbent?

Zinger Key Points
  • About 23% of the registered voters polled for a nationwide survey did not pick either Biden or Trump as their presidential choice.
  • Several dynamics including voter turnout, independent voters and crossover voting matter as most polls call for a tight race.

New poll results published on Thursday showed President Joe Biden just ahead of Donald Trump as voters prepare to choose their preferred candidate for the general election to be held on Nov. 5.

Slender Lead: Biden led Trump by one percent point by securing 39% of the support of registered voters compared to the 38% snagged by the latter, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found. The poll, held on March 7-13, surveyed 3,356 randomly-selected registered voters nationwide. The poll’s margin of error, a measure of uncertainty, was at +/- 1.8 percentage points.

Biden’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error, which suggests the final tally will be too close to call when elections are held.

The percentage of voters who chose other options also increases the uncertainty. Eleven percent said they would vote for other candidates, 5% said they would not vote, and 7% said they did not know or refused to answer.

The poll found that Trump had a marginal lead among all respondents, although Biden had the edge with registered voters. Registered voters are more likely to vote in November, so the incumbent’s standing in this category is significant, Reuters said. It added that only two-thirds of eligible voters turned out for the 2020 election, which Biden won.

See Also: Trump Vs. Biden: Swing State Pennsylvania Poll Shows One Candidate Leading ‘Because They [Voters] Care About An Issue’

Battleground States’ Verdict: The poll found that in seven states where the election results were the closest in 2020, the equation altered. Forty percent of the registered voters sided with Trump in these swing states, aka battleground states, and a more modest 37% picked Biden.

“While nationwide surveys give important signals on who America will vote for, just handful of competitive states typically tilt the balance in the U.S. electoral college, the ultimate decider in presidential elections,” the report said.

Kennedy – The Dark Horse: About 15% of the registered voters said they would back independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. if he appeared as the third candidate on the ballot. This percentage has, however, declined from 17% in the November poll.

The presence of Kennedy appeared to impact Trump and Biden in equal measure. When respondents were asked to choose between Trump and Biden in a two-way matchup, Biden received 50% support compared to Trump’s 48%.

The poll found that Trump also had vulnerabilities with independent voters and within his own party. Only 37% of supporters of Nikki Haley, who has dropped out of the Republican primary race, said they would vote for Trump now. Sixteen percent said they would vote for Biden, and the rest suggested they might vote for someone else or not.

Image Credits – Shutterstock/Edited

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