Bumble's Payee Ramp Up, Macro Resistance, Overseas Presence Offered Attractive Runway For Revenue and Margin Growth: Analyst

  • Keybanc analyst Justin Patterson maintained Bumble Inc BMBL with an Overweight and raised the price target from $27 to $28.
  • Bumble's 4Q results were better than expected, and commentary around 2023 growth (+16-19% Y/Y) and margin expansion (~100 bps Y/Y) appears potentially conservative ahead of multiple market and product initiatives, the analyst highlighted on a Thursday note. 
  • Patterson raised his 2023E revenue and EBITDA by 1% and 2%, respectively, and the price target. 
  • The analyst highlighted that Bumble payers increased +133K Q/Q, which was ~1% above the analyst's and Street estimates and materially outpaced Match Group, Inc's MTCH Tinder (-316K) Q/Q.
  • The analyst also emphasized that management noted that the top of the funnel and engagement metrics remain strong, with solid growth in consumable purchases and new subscriptions. Renewal rates have also stabilized since earnings.
  • Bumble's international presence experienced strength, with Germany set to become Bumble's third-largest revenue market. 
  • Bumble planned to expand deeper into Western and Central Europe and significant Latin American and Southeast Asian countries. 
  • Further, Bumble leveraged AI to improve matches (double-digit improvement in Western Europe tests), introduced new features (e.g., Best Bees), and launched new monetization initiatives. 
  • The analyst said Bumble had a meaningful runway to drive ~20% annual revenue growth and margin expansion.
  • Price Action: BMBL shares traded higher by 4.33% at $24.35 on the last check Thursday.
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