Add another log to the fire that is choking global supply chains. Strict lockdown measures to suppress Vietnam's worst outbreak of COVID infections since the pandemic began are severely curtailing factory production, especially for electronics, footwear, apparel and textiles, and ocean terminals lack sufficient equipment to export goods.
And the situation is likely to get worse, just as importers and exporters enter the traditional peak shipping season for the Halloween and Christmas holidays, logistics companies and analysts say.
The latest hot spot for rising infections is Ho Chi Minh City, where strict COVID quarantines have been in place since July 9. The number of positive cases topped 5,800 on Sunday, the highest level since the start of the pandemic.
Under new rules, manufacturing sites are allowed to stay open only if they have a plan to house and feed workers within the factory compound instead of having them commute back and forth to their homes. Vietnamese authorities also allow companies to transport workers to a collective place of residence, such as a hotel or dormitory. And employers must test workers for COVD-19 every seven days at their own expense.
The new restrictions forced many factories to close, while others that meet conditions for staying open have not been able to get registrations approved by authorities, according to an alert published Thursday by Everstream Analytics, which uses computational data analysis to help companies predict supply chain risks.
Restrictions against public gatherings have been extended until Aug. 1 and likely will also be extended beyond this week for manufacturers.
The number of COVID cases in Vietnam began to rise in May, with clusters of infections in the northeast region of the country outside of Hanoi leading to factory shutdowns for companies such as Samsung Electronics and Foxconn.
Major footwear manufacturers, including Chang Shin Vietnam Co. Ltd. and Pou Chen Corp., have suspended operations as part of the current lockdown, according to Everstream Analytics.
"Due to the short notice of the announcement, many companies have been unable to meet the requirements in order to continue operations," the data science company said.
About half of the 310 companies located in a large industrial park east of Ho Chi Minh City that registered to implement health security plans are still waiting for a green light, the Dong Nai Electronic Newspaper reported.
As more companies apply for the program, a backlog of approvals is likely to cause further disruptions to manufacturing, Everstream Analytics predicted.
Several factories in the Saigon Hi-Tech Park were ordered to temporarily shut down July 13 after more than 750 COVID-19 cases were reported there, the Vietnamese newspaper VN Express reported. Affected factories included the Samsung Electronics HCMC CE Complex, which reduced its workforce from 7,000 to 3,000 and was developing plans to isolate employees at its complex. Other companies unable to house all employees on-site, including electronics manufacturer Intel, have reportedly rented hotels nearby and are using daily buses to bring employees in.
Some Nidec Vietnam subsidiaries are operating only one shift per day, with a 35% reduction in workforce, the newspaper said.
Everstream's website listed more than a dozen manufacturers in the southeast region of the country that are closed, including Pou Chen Corp., the world's largest maker of athletic and casual footwear and a contract manufacturer for global brands such as Nike NKE, Adidas and New Balance.
The American Chamber of Commerce, in a webinar, said Nike has responded to the disruption by turning to airfreight to expedite exports from Vietnam because of the production slowdown and shipping delays at the country's ports, Nikkei Asia reported.
Data from Panjiva, a trade intelligence business within S&P Global Market Intelligence, shows that Vietnam accounts for 49% of all U.S. ocean imports by Nike. CEO Matt Friend said on Nike's June 24 earnings call with analysts that the company has a lot of inventory stuck offshore and is experiencing longer lead times for purchase orders, adding, "We expect supply chain delays and higher logistics costs to persist through much of fiscal 2022."
AP Moller-Maersk, the giant container vessel operator, said in an advisory to customers over the weekend that productivity is deteriorating at the port of Vung Tau with the spike in COVID cases.
Container availability was already a major issue in Vietnam prior to the outbreak, which is exacerbating difficulties locating boxes, as well as loading and unloading them in a timely manner, Jim Monkmeyer, president of transportation for DHL Supply Chain in Columbus, Ohio, said in an email exchange.
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"And now, ships are anchored offshore waiting for available berths, or are simply bypassing Vietnam due to reduced staffing in the port. These manufacturing shutdowns and port congestion have caused companies to move shipments via air to avoid complete stockouts," he said.
Trucks moving in and out of locked-down areas need to strictly follow government health rules and drivers need to show negative test results within the past three to seven days, depending on whether they get a fast test or a PCR test that is read in a lab, SEKO Logistics said in a customer notice Tuesday.
"The situation is likely to worsen in the coming weeks as the flow of cargo through Vietnamese ports increases" and warehouse space could become scarce if backlogs at ocean terminals increase, Everstream Analytics said. Moreover, if lockdowns are extended, workers may become exhausted and not be able, or willing, to spend additional weeks under existing conditions.
Vietnam is shaping up to be a possible replay of the logjam experienced in China at the Port of Yantian when terminals operated on a sharply truncated schedule to keep workers socially distanced, causing vessels to queue up for days outside the port waiting for dock space. That forced carriers to reroute vessels to other ports in the region, creating havoc in those locations and further constipating the entire shipping ecosystem already overwhelmed by a torrent of demand for cross-border trade.
Vietnam is a smaller manufacturing center than China, with smaller ports, so the ripple effects are likely to be less impactful. Still, some vessel strings to the U.S. call on Yantian as well as ports in south Vietnam, which could further slow transit times.
Malaysian Manufacturing
Meanwhile, Malaysia is in the midst of a national lockdown that is severely reducing manufacturing output. In the state of Selangor and the capital of Kuala Lumpur, local officials in July halted manufacturing except for the production of food and daily essentials, leading to a backlog of orders that could take months to clear. Impacted sectors include electronics, semiconductors, and medical equipment.
According to news site The Diplomat, the government's decision to allow 18 manufacturing sectors to operate at about 60% of workforce capacity created favorable conditions for virus outbreaks at factories and workers' dormitories. Workplace clusters have emerged as a key source of COVID-19 infection in Malaysia, with the bulk of the clusters identified linked to the industrial sector.
Now, many of those companies have reportedly shut down operations temporarily due to local COVID-19 outbreaks, labor shortages, or other operational challenges, Everstream reported. Malaysia's largest styrene monomer producer, Idemitsu Kasan Company Ltd., closed its plant in Pasir Gudang on June 1, while semiconductor company Infineon Technologies and electronic components makers Taiyo Yuden and Seiko Epson all shuttered operations in Malaysia to prevent further COVID-19 transmission among their workforces.
Even factories that have continued to operate without restrictions under the new total lockdown on June 1 have experienced reduced productivity. The new measures were expected to reduce semiconductor output by between 15% to 40%, according to the Malaysia Semiconductor Industry Association, likely exacerbating global supply issues.
Everstream Analytics said it is also likely that companies outside Selangor and Kuala Lumpur will experience disruption because sub-tier suppliers located in these areas are being affected by the outbreak. An unidentified company located in Penang that produces capacitors for automotive, telecommunications, and medical device makers has reportedly declared force majeure as many of its suppliers located in Selangor and Kuala Lumpur were forced to shut down.
It is forecast that a partial normalization of business will happen in September, but a full reopening of the economy is unlikely before the end of the year because of health-system challenges.
Click here for more American Shipper/FreightWaves stories by Eric Kulisch.
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