Options Corner: A Tenuous Ceasefire Keeps Petrobras In Play For Opportunistic Traders

With an ugly geopolitical flashpoint seemingly averted for now, Brazilian energy giant Petrobras PBR and other hydrocarbon specialists incurred some red ink during the midweek session. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump declared that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was in effect, despite reports of renewed hostilities putting the deal into question. For now, the agreement seems to be holding. Still, the tenuous framework may eventually present a cynical upside opportunity for PBR stock.

On a Truth Social post, Trump stated that "Israel is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave' to Iran." Assuming that the ceasefire leads to a more sustained solution, the threat of global oil disruption has declined, thus leading to increasing pressure against PBR stock and its ilk.

Since Israel launched its attack against Iran on June 13, a key concern has been the Strait of Hormuz. A pivotal energy artery, the passage accounts for nearly one-third of the world's oil supply. With the U.S. military launching B-2 bombers to strike multiple Iranian nuclear facilities, tensions and anxieties skyrocketed.

Even with the ceasefire in effect, analysts remain cautious, pointing to the fragile nature of the agreement, along with the potential for renewed clashes. A major source of friction is the stated reason why Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran: the country's nuclear program.

According to a CBS News report, an initial classified intelligence assessment revealed that Iran's nuclear capability was only set back by months. What's more, Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf stated that the peaceful nuclear program will "move forward at a faster pace."

If so, a geopolitical cloud continues to hang over the region, which could potentially ignite oil prices.

Leveraging Statistics To Trade PBR Stock

Although the concept of the energy market swinging back to life following another unexpected event may be enticing, it also lacks specificity. For those interested in trading PBR stock options, it's not enough to have a thesis regarding the magnitude component or the y-axis of the price chart. Rather, the targeted move must also materialize within the specified time element (x-axis) due to options expiring.

In other words, options traders live in a world of probabilities, which incentivizes statistical analysis. At first glance, this exercise seems simple enough: merely take the frequency of the desired outcome divided by the total number of events in the target dataset. However, this approach only calculates the derivative probability or the outcome odds over the dataset's entire distribution. What traders are looking for is the conditional probability — outcome odds over a specific subset of the data.

Derivative probabilities are akin to the advice that educators often give: because the odds of receiving an athletic scholarship are so low, it's best to focus on academic scholarship opportunities. But if you're a phenomenal football player, your conditional odds of receiving a full ride based on your athletic abilities may be exponentially greater than the aggregate odds.

That's essentially the point about PBR stock. Based on its price action and past analogs, PBR may be poised to perform better than it usually does. But to calculate the odds, we must first convert past price data into a unified language, which is where market breadth comes in. As sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions, market breadth is effectively binary and thus enables categorization and quantification. Ultimately, these attributes empower probabilistic analysis.

Currently, PBR stock is printing a "4-6-U" sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, with a net positive trajectory across the 10-week period. Admittedly, the conversion of past pricing data into a binary code compresses the underlying magnitude component. However, the key benefit of this compression is the categorization of price action as discrete behavioral states. These states reflect past analogs, which can be studied to determine the likelihood of transition from one state to another.

From past empirical data, we can objectively determine that when the 4-6-U sequence flashes, the following week's price action results in upside 68.75% of the time, with a median return of 2.43%. Should the bulls maintain control of the market for a second week, the projected upside return is 2.58%.

A Daring But Enticing Call Spread To Consider

Based on the market intelligence above, aggressive speculators may consider the 12/13 bull call spread expiring July 18. This transaction involves buying the $12 call and simultaneously selling the $13 call, for a net debit paid of $48 (the most that can be lost in the trade). Should PBR stock rise through the short strike price ($13) at expiration, the maximum reward is $52, a payout of over 108%.

For those who are super-aggressive, the 12.50/13 bull spread (also expiring on July 18) is available. Here, the net debit is lower at $17 and the max reward is $33, translating to a payout of over 194%. However, the breakeven price for this trade is $12.67 as opposed to $12.48 for the 12/13 spread, meaning that the probabilistic risk is also higher.

Still, the common incentive undergirding both trades is the implied shift in sentiment regime of the 4-6-U sequence. As a baseline, the chance that a long position in PBR stock will be profitable over any given week is only 51.82%. Therefore, those already prone to speculation have a statistical incentive to swing the bat.

The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.

Read Next:

• Options Corner: TJX Companies May Be Poised For Upside As Shoppers Hunt For Discounts

Photo: Shutterstock