President Trump's recent meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin could mark the beginning of the end of the Ukraine war. Volodymr Zelensky even showed up to the White House last week in a suit. Change is a-foot. If the war ends, could Russian sanctions end along with it? And if so, does that mean Russian companies regain access to U.S. investors?
A Russian peace treaty that ends sanctions could be a headwind for South African miner Sibanye Stillwater SBSW, which trades OTC and is up 143% this year. Sibanye has been a lucrative equity investment into gold and the precious metals miners. Sibanye is part of South Africa's group of PGM companies – which stands for Platinum Group Metals miners.
The Russian sanctions meant American investors lost access to Sibanye rival Norilsk Nickel (aka Nornickel), whose Moscow-traded shares are down around 23% since the war in Ukraine began on Feb. 24, 2022, underperforming the benchmark Moscow Exchange Index, which is up 5% over the same period. Part of that drop in Norilsk's value was driven by the exodus of foreign investors, but to a larger extent the cause was internal – the so-called "Potanin discount", a phenomenon named after CEO and largest shareholder Vladimir Potanin, whose management decisions and sanctions against him have contributed to the slide.
That loss of access for U.S. investors was Sibanye's gain, even as South African politics took a turn for the worst, with sanctions a potential threat for the country.
Palladium and Platinum Prices YTD Ending Aug. 26, 2025:
- Platinum: $1,337/oz, up over 50%
- Palladium: $1,118/oz. up 21%
- Platinum Group Metals PLG up 16.4%
Platinum prices are up 50.6% since the war began in February 2022 to their peak on July 7. They have been falling since then. Palladium prices have declined since the war, going from $1,917 an ounce in January 2022 to $1,101 per ounce on Wednesday, August 20.
Sibanye Stillwater and Norilsk Nickel are the two major players here, but for Americans only one is investable.
Sibanye is relatively new. It was formed from a 2017 merger between Sibanye Gold and Stillwater Mining. They have underground palladium and platinum mining operations in Montana, considered to be the largest outside South Africa and Russia.
Their South African gold operations are doing well, with EBITDA once rising 216% in the second half of 2024.
According to Mining Review, Sibanye‑Stillwater reported an 86% increase in adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter 2025, reaching approximately $222 million. They have a reported $864 million in cash reserves. Cash reserves are important for commodities companies. Prices for gold, platinum and palladium can go up or down 30%-plus in a year. Large cash reserves let companies survive bear markets in commodities without needing to sell assets, including shares they own themselves, or take on debt.
Investors might like it more if it was delving into rare earth elements, but so far that is not on the radar other than the possibility of recycling rare earths with last year's purchase of Abington Reldan Metals LLC, a precious metals recycler out of Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania.
Sibanye has had a good 2025. Other than outperforming GLD, it's also beating their South Africa PGM rivals, led by Impala Platinum. Valterra Platinum (formerly known as Anglo American Platinum) comes in third.
Sabinye's South African rivals, Impala Platinum and the newly named Valterra Platinum are not in the sexier rare earth elements business either. There are other mining rivals in South Africa, but these three are more of a PGM pure play.
The Russian Roadblock?
Any major anti-Russian sanctions reprieve for Norilsk Nickel's subsidiaries (the main company is not sanctioned) could send Sabinye's stock price back down to Earth. As it is now, the two companies are trading neck and neck on the year, with Nornickel regaining ground throughout the summer.
Trump did hint in early July that more sanctions were on the table, but has since been quiet about it. Following the Alaska meeting last week, barring a Putin rebuke of Trump's offers, further sanctions seem to be on hold. There has also been no talk of removing sanctions on Russian businesses.
The U.S. and U.K. imposed bans on Nornickel imports of nickel, copper, and aluminum produced on or after April 13, 2024 but the company delisted from the U.S. two years prior to that. This happened right around the time the once popular Van Eck Russia ETF was halted and then shut down in 2023.
Nornickel is the world's largest palladium producer, with big stakes in platinum and, of course, nickel.
The stock collapsed since the war broke out, with sanctions against Potanin adding extra pressure. Once sanctions kicked in, the company was soon gone from the U.S exchange. The broader sanctions on Russia have led to Western companies avoiding Russian metals, creating payment issues, and forcing Nornickel to shift its sales focus to China.
Dividend cancellations, opaque communications, and asset transfers through deals disputed in London court have all weighed on investor confidence. In April 2025, Norilsk's shares dropped out of the Moscow Exchange's "People's Portfolio" top 10 for the first time in years.
Nornickel continues to deliver good financial results, with an EBITDA margin of around 50%. Yet dividends flow to majority owner Potanin through Norilsk's subsidiary Bystrinsky GOK, and no longer flow to investors.
Nornickel's concerns mostly affect Russian investors as American investors are out, unless they hold these shares through some offshore entities or in ruble accounts run by Moscow asset managers.
Sibanye, which previously paid dividends twice a year, has also not paid dividends in 2025.
In a way, Sibanye Stillwater has become the new Nornickel for investors. Even if sanctions were removed on Potanin and import bans were lifted, American investors would not be able to participate in that Nornickel victory. Moreover, it is not likely the stock ever returns to New York anyway.
According to Polymarket, only 6% expect Trump to impose new sanctions on Russia by August 31.
But there is another headwind for Sibanye, more obvious than Nornickel staging a comeback and stealing its thunder in U.S. markets.
The commodities index has been going down even in a weaker dollar environment, said Vladimir Signorelli, head of Bretton Woods Research in New Jersey. Usually a weak dollar means strong commodities.
"I've been describing it like this: gold is the thermostat, and oil is the heating bill. Falling oil prices would be great for inflation and fantastic for interest rate policy, but maybe bad for commodities investors and surely for miners," he said. "I think oil is going below $60 and I think gold goes below $3,200 or down to $3,000 if you get a peace deal in Ukraine. If gold falls, all the precious metals will go down right along with it."
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
Edge Rankings
Price Trend
© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
