Nevertheless, the head executive's original cautiousness may have a point. Although quantum computers are undoubtedly innovative and revolutionary, their ultimate utility is limited to specific applications. Essentially, classical computers speak in a binary code but quantum computers speak in probabilities, utilizing complex rules and dynamics from quantum physics.

As such, they're groundbreaking for solving problems that are probabilistic or quantum in nature. However, the issue is that quantum bits (qubits) that undergird the machines are highly sensitive, requiring extreme conditions — such as near absolute zero temperatures — to operate.

In other words, there's a lot of justified optimism baked into QUBT stock — along with potentially a lot of hype.

The Winning Streak For QUBT Stock May Be A Bit Too Hot

Part of the problem regarding buying QUBT stock based on Huang's continued about-face on the underlying sector is that, by the time retail investors are reading the comments, the optimism has already been priced in. Unless there is another positive catalyst around the corner, bidding up QUBT — which is historically volatile — presents risks.

It must be said that technical analysis is a visual representation of market behavior. As such, the interpretive value is largely heuristic. But from an empirical standpoint, QUBT stock also appears to be on shaky ground.

That's not the scary part. No, the real horror begins in the second week. Should the bears maintain control, the median loss at that point would be 21.85%.

Granted, the above data stems from probabilities and projections based on past data — data which is admittedly from a super-small sample size. However, there is a danger in assuming that the balance of bullishness can be pushed to the extreme without consequence.

An Aggressive Bear Put Spread For The Data-Driven Trader

Based strictly on the numbers, it's likely — though to be clear, not guaranteed — that the near-term bearish approach may find success. For those who want to take a shot, the 15/14 bear put spread expiring July 3 may be enticing.

The above transaction involves buying the $15 put and simultaneously selling the $14 put, for a net debit paid of $45. Should QUBT stock fall through the short strike price ($14) at expiration, the maximum reward is $55, a payout of over 122%.

Primarily, what makes this trade attractive is the statistical response to eight up weeks within a 10-week period. More often than not, irrespective of the company's fundamentals, traders have a history of bailing out. This bear spread allows the contrarian statistician to potentially extract profits from the downdraft.

Also, the aforementioned pattern reflects a shift in magnitude in terms of sentiment regime. As a baseline, the chance that a long position in QUBT stock will be profitable over any given week is only 39.83%. With the previously mentioned sequence, the long-side odds are only 25%.

Without casting any aspersions on Quantum Computing as a business, the numbers simply don't favor bullishness in the near term. It's nothing personal…it's just statistics.

Read Next:

• Options Corner: Diplomatic Progress Clears The Path For This Call Spread On Applied Materials

Photo: Shutterstock