As HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) approaches its fourth-quarter earnings report on Tuesday, the stock sits at a pivotal juncture defined by a single number: $30. This price target has become the unlikely meeting point for both bulls and bears, representing a collision between two competing narratives.
On one side sits the “AI Hype”—a promised revolution in personal computing. On the other looms the “Windows 10 Cliff”—a forced hardware obsolescence event that analysts believe matters far more for HP's immediate bottom line.
Check out HPQ’s stock price here.
The ‘Forced’ Supercycle
While HP management touts that AI PCs have already reached over 25% of their shipment mix, the bullish case for hitting $30 relies on a much less glamorous catalyst: the expiration of Windows 10 support.
With Microsoft having ended support for the aging OS in October 2025, corporate IT departments face a hard deadline.
HSBC, which upgraded HP to a “Buy” with a $30 target, notes that roughly 50% of the installed base has yet to upgrade, and 20% of those devices physically cannot run Windows 11. This creates a “forced supercycle” of hardware replacements that is less about consumer enthusiasm and more about corporate necessity.
See Also: HP Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript
The Consumer ‘Reality Check’
Conversely, bears like Loop Capital see the $30 mark not as a stepping stone, but as a ceiling. They maintained a “Hold” rating while slashing their target to $30, citing persistent “consumer softness” that threatens to undercut the commercial recovery.
Despite HP’s aggressive cost-cutting—aiming for $1.9 billion in gross annual savings—the skeptical view warns that a struggling Print segment, down 4% in the third quarter, continues to act as a drag on profitability.
The Q4 Verdict
For the fourth quarter, management has guided for non-GAAP EPS between $0.87 and $0.97, betting that the “traction” from their tariff mitigation strategies will finally restore margins to the 5-7% range.
Whereas analysts’ consensus on Benzinga Pro projects earnings of $0.92 per share on the revenue of $14.70 billion.
When HP reports on Tuesday, the market won’t just be looking for AI buzzwords; they will be checking if the “Windows 10 Cliff” is actually pushing customers to jump.
On Monday, the shares closed 1.75% higher at $24.38 apiece and rose by 0.53% in after-hours. The stock has declined 25.28% year-to-date and 37.96% over the year.
It maintained a weaker price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a poor growth ranking. Additional performance details are available here.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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