Why does Bitcoin’s price feel "stuck" at ~$100k?
Are we experiencing another double top like in 2021?
Here's what's likely happening in 60 seconds or less 👇
Why is Bitcoin's price stuck?
We're experiencing:
• Billions in ETF inflows
• Treasury companies are buying
• The supply of newly mined BTC pales in comparison
Something isn't adding up.
Some people are pointing the finger at paper BTC suppressing prices.
Although there's an element of truth to this claim, that isn't the full story.
What we're actually experiencing is two things:
1 – The psychological impact of "$100k $BTC"
2 – Global liquidity
Let's unpack both 👇
1 – $100k Bitcoin
$100,000 Bitcoin isn't just another number.
It's been a milestone for many investors for years.
Tons of investors arbitrarily decided they would take some lifestyle chips off the table at $100k.
There are enough whales in this pile to somewhat resist the institutional adoption we're seeing.
2 – Global Liquidity
But much more importantly, we have global liquidity.
Most of this cycle's:
• Unbearable sideways chop
• 30% drawdown from 106k
• And recent surge back up
Is thanks to global liquidity.
People don't realize this because headlines always get the credit for price swings.
• Trump's election victory is credited for Bitcoin's surge
• Trump's tariffs are credited for Bitcoin's decline
• Trump's tariff pauses are credited for Bitcoin's rebound
But global liquidity is the true driver.
I'm not suggesting headlines are useless.
They obviously aren't.
What I'm saying is headlines are the spark, while global liquidity is the fuel.
And it just so happens that Trump's election victory aligned with a global liquidity rise.
Whereas his tariff policies aligned with global liquidity withering up.
And his tariff pause aligned with global liquidity rising again.
Alright, but how does that explain Bitcoin being stuck at ~$100k?
After all, global liquidity is still rising, but Bitcoin has stopped moving.
The answer is that Bitcoin doesn't always 100% follow global liquidity.
It decouples from time to time and resyncs later.
Especially when there's bearish news.
There's a high likelihood that the Trump/Musk drama was the last path of resistance.
Unless more bearish headlines come out that temporarily stalls BTC again, we should start climbing higher.
China just printed another 1 trillion yuan, and the Fed HAS to cut rates eventually.
I expect a longer cycle than usual this time around.
Could I be wrong? Of course.
There are no certainties, only probabilities.
Do your own research, come to your own conclusions, and profit.
I'm looking forward to the next few months.
That's it!
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