Sell Bitcoin In May And Go Away? Here's How How You Could Have Pocketed A 1,449% Cumulative Return

Zinger Key Points
  • Nic Puckrin highlights Bitcoin's historical "sell in May" strategy, with 1,449% gains from October to April.
  • Worsening macro factors and fading sentiment drive liquidity away; a potential $1.4 trillion Treasury injection could provide a lifeline.

Coinbureau co-founder Nic Puckrin shared how a “sell in May and go away” strategy would have done for Bitcoin BTC/USD.

What Happened: In a thread on X, Puckrin pointed out compelling statistics on the historical performance of Bitcoin. Over the past five years, buying Bitcoin in October and selling in April has yielded cumulative returns of 1,449%. In contrast, buying in May and selling in September has resulted in a loss of 29%. The question on everyone’s mind is whether the chart will see a similar pattern this year.

“Sell in May, Go Away” is an old adage from TradFi which refers to the effect of seasonality.

"Daily trading volume & volatility has fallen to 2-month lows and futures premiums have fallen to 3-month lows," Puckrin writes, adding that other factors like institutions are less bullish. Moreover, retail sentiment is fading, and the Fear & Greed index is in neutral territory, with Bitcoin search trends heading lower.

Also Read: Bitcoin At A Reversal Point? Trader Sees These 3 ‘Key Areas Of Interest’

Why It Matters: The worsening macro environment and the fading "pivot play" are driving liquidity away from the markets in general.

Puckrin suggests that a saving grace could be the draining of the Treasury General Account, which could provide risk assets with a liquidity injection of up to $1.4 trillion, as recently theorized by Arthur Hayes.

Whether the Treasury decides to provide this much-needed stimulus depends on various factors, such as the labor market, GDP growth,and the administration’s desire to win the upcoming election.

If historical patterns hold true, a cooling off period could be witnessed in the crypto market over the next few months.

What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

Read Next: Why Michael Saylor Sees Bitcoin As ‘Apex Property Of The Human Race’

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Image: Shutterstock

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