Crypto bettors on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, say former President Joe Biden's chances of dropping out of the 2024 presidential race have surged by 50%.
What Happened: Biden's chances to officially announce his withdrawal or confirm to have withdrawn shot up from 19% on Thursday to 30% at the time of writing.
The market rules specify that "any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race" would also resolve bets on the president's withdrawal to "yes."
Market participants have traded $350,000 on the question, a far cry from the $43 million on the election winner market and $5.8 million on the Democratic nominee market.
Notably, the President's odds to be the nominee have come in from 83% to 74%. Former First Lady Michelle Obama's chances to be her party's nominee are rated 10%. This follows a surge in traders' interest in her chances to win the election — at 8% — despite Obama never announcing any ambitions to participate in the race.
On another market, traders put the chances of Biden withdrawing from the race by the end of Feb. 16 at 3%.
Interest in political prediction markets continues to rise, despite Polymarket blocking U.S. users due to a CFTC order.
Why It Matters: The surging odds follow a report on Special Counsel Robert Hur's investigation into Biden's handling of classified documents, which described the president's memory as "severely limited."
White House counsel Richard Sauber and Biden’s personal attorney Bob Bauer pushed back against the report's findings, as did the president himself in remarks at the White House Thursday evening.
Biden slammed the report's comments about forgetting the year of his son Beau's death, saying he didn't believe it was any of Hur's business, Fortune reports.
The president said the interviews were conducted "in the middle of handling an international crisis" following Hamas's October attack on Israel.
Professional prediction market trader Villu Veedla told Benzinga the same "anti-Biden bias" that had markets excited about Trump's chances in the 2020 election may have influenced the market's knee-jerk reaction.
The Special Counsel report created the "perfect storm" for a market that was long searching for an alternative to what it perceives to be an unexciting candidate, he said.
Yet the market may be underestimating the game theory driving the election outcome and, making the 66% feel like a "value bet," Veedla told Benzinga in an exclusive comment.
What's Next: Traders' interest may shift toward the Republican primaries, where former President Donald Trump enjoys a commanding lead over his lone remaining rival, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Photo via Shutterstock.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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