The Pivot Debate & Big OPEC+ Meeting

Good Morning Everyone!

The stock market is up 3.8% over last 5 days, Bitcoin is back above $20k and Elon Musk is finally, actually, maybe buying Twitter. Nature is healing.

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Prices as of 4 pm EST, 10/4/22;% YTD


MARKET UPDATE

Pullback today after nearly a 6% pivot-rally off the Friday close

China kicked off the 7-day Golden Week last Saturday

  • Yesterday, President Xi was seen maskless sparking hopes of relaxed Covid restrictions

ADP employment: stronger than expected jobs report

  • 208k jobs vs 200k estimated

Today, New Zealand central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points (not 25), 5th straight

Today: 10 a.m.  ISM number

Tomorrow: Jobs number

Next Thursday: CPI

Next FOMC meeting: November 2

US$ 111

C$ 73

Crude 86.50 flat

  • OPEC+ meet in person in Vienna today

  • Will the 23-nation alliance cut today and if so, how much?

  • 9 a.m. with a press conference after the meeting

  • The street is at a 1-2 million barrel/day cut

  • Many OPEC+ members are underproducing their quotas, so a proportional cut would be smaller than actual headline

  • 1 million barrel cut would equal 500,000 in actuality

  • 2 million barrel cut would equal 1.1 million in actuality

  • Will it be a proportional cut or will Saudi Arabia and UAE take more of the share?

From BMO Research: TINA (there-is-no-alternative) is no-more

  • Canadian GIC’s have become a competitive option for yield-oriented investors

Twitter TWTR

  • Musk settles for original $54.20 buyout offer

  • No haircut

  • Trump will be back on Twitter soon

  • Musk tweets he may create a North American WeChat App

CRYPTO UPDATE

Fidelity wades deeper into crypto

  • New crypto offering: Ethereum ETH/USD Index Fund

  • Has raised ~$5 million since Sept 26

  • Minimum investment = $50k (accredited investors only)

~70% of altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past month

 

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