Is Bitcoin About to Enter the S&P 500? MicroStrategy Now Qualifies For Inclusion, Analyst Says

Anyone invested in the S&P 500 may soon own Bitcoin indirectly.

MicroStrategy MSTR maxi Jeff Walton said Tuesday on X that the company had cleared the final hurdle to qualify for the highly coveted index, which could make Bitcoin an index asset by proxy.

Since MicroStrategy’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, the big question has been whether the company with the most significant Bitcoin holdings of any public firm can get included in the S&P 500 next. But one hurdle stood in its way for months: net profitability over 12 months. 

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Under previous accounting rules, MicroStrategy was forced to report its Bitcoin holdings at an impaired price, leading to negative earnings on unrealized losses. However, following a Financial Accounting Standards Board rule change allowing firms to record their digital assets at fair value, MicroStrategy has finally been able to clear the profitability criteria.

With Bitcoin closing at around $107,000 on Monday, Walton said MicroStrategy will report an estimated $14 billion profit in Q2, translating to an estimated $11 billion net profit over the past 12 months.

"This clears the FINAL criteria Strategy needed to be considered for the S&P 500," he said.

But qualifying may not be enough for inclusion. After qualifying, the S&P 500 committee still has complete discretion over which companies get included. This process is likely to be "controversial and heavily debated," according to Walton.

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The committee typically considers index balance, economic representation and stability before making its decision. Analysts are divided on whether MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin accumulation model will be an issue for the committee, as some argue that the firm now largely operates like a closed-ended fund.

"S&P excludes ETFs and closed-end funds from its index because they want the index to contain operating businesses, not investment funds," Brooklyn Investment Group equities chief Antii Petajisto told Bloomberg last year, discussing MicroStrategy’s odds of being included in the index.

Whatever the case, market watchers will have to wait until the third week of September to know if the firm will be included, as the second quarter inclusion window has passed.

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If the firm makes the cut, it would become the second cryptocurrency-related company to do so this year after Coinbase COIN in May. 

“Inclusion in the S&P 500 means every major index fund holds Strategy shares—further cementing Bitcoin’s mainstream legitimacy,” Bitcoin content creator “Alexes Nakamoto” said.

MicroStrategy stock is trading at $396 pre-market with a market capitalization of $113 billion. At last look, it also holds 597,325 BTC worth nearly $64 billion, representing nearly 3% of the entire asset supply.

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