Seven states that helped determine the outcome of the 2020 presidential election are being referenced as some of the most watched battlegrounds in a potential head-to-head match between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
What Happened: A new Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll shows the results of the seven states and also what voters think are the most important issues heading into the 2024 presidential election.
Here's a look at how the voters in each state would vote between Biden and Trump if the election were held today, with results from the December poll in parentheses.
- Arizona: Trump 47% (46%), Biden 44% (42%)
- Georgia: Trump 49% (49%), Biden 41% (43%)
- Michigan: Trump 47% (46%), Biden 42% (42%)
- Nevada: Trump 48% (47%), Biden 40% (44%)
- North Carolina: Trump 49% (49%), Biden 39% (40%)
- Pennsylvania: Trump 48% (46%), Biden 45% (44%)
- Wisconsin: Trump 49% (45%), Biden 44% (41%)
Trump gained support in five of the seven states and kept the same support in two states compared to the results from December. Biden gained support in three states, kept the same support in one state and lost support in three states.
The gap in most states is also wider than the current 44% to 42% advantage Trump has in a Morning Consult poll of all registered voters nationwide.
Related Link: Bill Ackman’s Warning To Democrats: Trump Is Going To Crush Biden In 2024 Election
Why It's Important: The results above could be bad news for Biden with the current president losing support from voters in the key states. What could be more alarming is the biggest issues from voters in the seven states and which candidate they trust more.
The top issues in the four states are the economy, immigration, democracy and abortion. Here's a look at how these four issues rank in the swing states, with the percent voting each as the top issue.
- All Seven States: 36% economy, 13% immigration, 11% democracy, 6% abortion
- Arizona: 28% economy, 20% immigration, 12% democracy, 5% abortion
- Georgia: 42% economy, 12% democracy, 10% immigration, 5% abortion
- Michigan: 37% economy, 14% democracy, 12% immigration, 5% abortion
- Nevada: 33% economy, 15% immigration, 13% democracy, 3% abortion
- North Carolina: 34% economy, 16% immigration, 9% democracy, 6% abortion
- Pennsylvania: 34% economy, 12% immigration, 10% democracy, 9% abortion
- Wisconsin: 36% economy, 14% immigration, 11% democracy, 9% abortion
The share of voters who selected the economy as the top issue was 36% across the seven states, with the issue the top in each state. The issue has declined from 41% of the vote in November.
Immigration has become a bigger issue, going from 9% in November to 13% in January and the second-place issue in five of the seven states.
The survey found that voters trust Trump more to handle the economy and immigration in all seven states. The highest percent of trust received by Biden on the economy was 36% for the states of Nevada and Pennsylvania. The highest percent of trust received by Biden on immigration was 39% in North Carolina.
The economy continues to be a large issue, with stock markets at all-time highs. However, Biden has had an issue winning over critics, given the periods of high inflation and increased consumer spending.
The S&P 500 gained 37.4% during Biden's first year in office, which was the best one-year market return under a president since Harry Truman in 1945.
In 2022, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of over 19%, representing the largest annual drop since 2008.
During Trump's four years as president, the S&P 500 had average annual gains of 14.5%. And the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY was up a total of around 67% during the four years under Trump, making it one of the best four-year returns for the S&P 500 in recent history.
Since Biden was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2021, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is up 30.1% over the last three years.
Biden is backed by the Political Action Committee Future Forward. The pro-Biden PAC is spending $250 million on advertising across television and digital ads in the seven states from August to Election Day in November.
Together, the seven swing states represent 93 electoral votes in the 2024 election. Six of the seven swing states were won by Biden in the 2020 election, with Trump winning North Carolina. Five of the seven swing states won by Biden in 2020 flipped from Trump to Biden in the election.
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