According to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) looks fundamentally undervalued—yet price action tells a more complicated story.
What Happened: Bitcoin is being pulled in two opposite directions.
Institutional and corporate demand, particularly through Coinbase, is near record highs, Edwards explained.
At the same time, long-term holders ("OG" whales) are aggressively selling into that strength, capping upside momentum.
On-chain valuation models suggest BTC is trading well below its fair value based on network security and usage.
Yet despite strong fundamentals, price remains stuck.
Corporate Bitcoin treasury stocks are trading at deep discounts to NAV, leverage is rising, and the once-powerful corporate accumulation flywheel appears to have stalled.
Edwards describes the setup as value-attractive but momentum-defensive — bullish long term but constrained in the near term until selling pressure eases.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez summed it up bluntly: "Bear market. The 4-year cycle is back."
Also Read: Bitcoin’s Decline Is Bear Market Evidence, Not A Dip: 10x Research
Why It Matters: CryptoQuant data shows long-term holders are distributing at one of the largest 30-day rates seen in the past five years, behavior typically associated with late-cycle tops, not bottoms.
Key signals include:
- Long-term holder supply rolling over from record highs
- Spot price well above long-term holder realized price
- Older coins locking in profits rather than capitulating
This points to de-risking, not fresh long-term accumulation.
Still, the institutional story continues to grow.
Public companies now hold over 1.076 million BTC, just 20,000 shy of Satoshi's estimated holdings, crypto trader Rand noted.
Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) alone claims its treasury represents 3.2% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist as it continues to acquire BTC since Q3 2020.
Meanwhile, Eric Trump noted that American Bitcoin (NASDAQ:ABTC) has climbed to the 20th-largest public Bitcoin treasury company in just 39 days.
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