Bitcoin Is Down 35% In 6 Weeks, But The Next Rally Decides If It's 'Over' Or Not

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) 35% pullback has triggered widespread calls for a new bear market. Yet, a prominent analyst maintains that a single yet-to-happen event will determine the true direction of the cycle.

What Happened: In his latest podcast, analyst Kevin argues that Bitcoin's fate hinges on one catalyst: a counter-trend rally that still hasn't formed. He outlines why sentiment has flipped sharply bearish:

• Bitcoin lost the 2-day 200 EMA/SMA and the 50-week SMA
• Price broke below the critical $98,000–$106,800 zone, a region loaded with major Fibonacci levels and long-term resistance
• Four-year cycle ROI readings now resemble late-cycle exhaustion signals

Kevin's base case: Bitcoin is currently in a standard correction window of 114–174 days, and the low is likely to form somewhere in the $70,000–$80,000 range. After that comes the critical moment — the counter-trend rally.

That rally will decide everything. If BTC reclaims $98,000–$106,800 and key moving averages → new all-time highs become likely. If BTC gets rejected there → the true bear market begins.

He concludes not to rush to call the cycle over, instead wait for confirmation from the next major rally.

Also Read: Bitcoin AT $86,000, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Stabilize On Monday Open

Why It Matters: Kevin emphasizes that comparing this environment to the 2021–22 top is misleading. Back then, inflation was surging, the Fed was aggressively hiking, and quantitative tightening had just begun. Today, macro conditions are almost the opposite:

• Inflation is cooling
• The Fed is easing
• Quantitative tightening ends in December
• PMIs remain in contraction, historically supportive for risk assets

Sentiment also contradicts a macro top, with social metrics collapsing to their worst levels on record, whereas real cycle tops are typically marked by extreme euphoria.

Read Next:

• Bitcoin’s Staring At 5 Technical Indicators That Scream ‘Sell Now’

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