Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says that a true altcoin season will only begin once both Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) reach new all-time highs, marking a structural shift in market dynamics.
What Happened: In an interview with Scott Melker on Oct. 19, Cowen explained that the recent market wipeout, where over $20 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in just 10 days, aligns closely with a 2017-style cycle pattern.
In that cycle, altcoin/BTC pairs rallied and peaked by late summer, only to crash by early November before a final euphoric rotation.
He noted that many traders incorrectly expected 2025 to mirror 2021's structure, whereas current price behaviour "is more like the 2017 cycle, in the way that altcoins have been behaving relative to Bitcoin."
Cowen outlined his main condition for a full-fledged altseason: "Not only do you need Bitcoin at all-time highs, you need Ethereum at all-time highs, in my opinion, to see any massive rotation into altcoins."
Until that happens, he expects Bitcoin dominance to keep rising, regardless of whether BTC climbs, consolidates, or dips, leaving altcoins at a relative disadvantage. He anticipates this "defensive rotation" to persist for another two to three weeks.
Cowen also revisited his April pivot on ETH/BTC, explaining that Ethereum had reached its lower logarithmic regression band, which historically marks a bottom in Ethereum's valuation relative to Bitcoin.
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Why It Matters: Addressing the four-year cycle debate, Cowen argued that halvings aren't the sole driver of Bitcoin's cycles.
He emphasized that the market's cycle template remains intact: historically, Bitcoin peaks in August, dips in September, and rallies into its final top soon after.
If that rally fails, Cowen expects answers soon: "If Bitcoin is still not trading to new all-time highs by mid-December, it would be hard for me to stay bullish."
For now, Cowen's risk management remains rule-based: "When you get two weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, the cycle's over."
Until that happens, he continues to favor Bitcoin over broad alt exposure, noting, "You can literally just hold Bitcoin and wait for confirmation. If Bitcoin drops 10%, alts are down another 50%."
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