Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST) is facing new scrutiny after its November U.S. core sales came in softer than expected, signaling a rare cooling in the retailer’s multi-month momentum and raising fresh questions about consumer strength heading into the holidays.
Despite the slowdown, underlying traffic and spending trends remain solid, suggesting the dip may reflect timing shifts and temporary headwinds rather than a broader pullback.
JPMorgan cut its price forecast from $1,050 to $1,025 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
Analyst Christopher Horvers says recent U.S. core comparable sales have moderated, and November’s +5.8% U.S. core comp landed below the Street’s +6.8% expectation.
Still, he argues the broader trend since May looks steady once calendar and reporting shifts are stripped out, and he cautions investors against reading too much into month-to-month noise, particularly with government shutdown-related drag lingering early in the month before demand improved.
Operationally, Horvers points to continued strength in traffic (up roughly 3%–4% across the U.S./enterprise) and ticket growth (~+2.5%, excluding gas and FX).
Canada and other international regions outperformed expectations, and digital remained a standout, with digitally enabled comps up 16.3% (excluding FX).
Category performance stayed constructive, with Fresh and Food & Sundries holding solid gains, Non-Foods still positive despite some cooling in “majors,” and ancillary businesses improving, helped by pharmacy, optical, and food court. For December, JPMorgan models total company core comps around +5.8%.
On items to monitor, he flags cannibalization holding at ~60 bps and the gold bar tailwind cooling from September’s elevated lift as comparisons tightened. Costco also began reporting a broader metric, total comps excluding all gas and FX, which came in at +7.0% for November.
Valuation And Earnings Outlook
Horvers’ $1,025 target is built on a 47x P/E applied to his fiscal 2027 estimates, reflecting Costco’s share gains, resilient traffic, and incremental upside from emerging advertising. His forecasts call for fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $19.94 and fiscal 2027 of $21.70.
Legal Overhang: Costco Challenges “Emergency” Tariffs
In other major news for the company, Costco has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking a full refund of tariffs paid under the Trump administration’s IEEPA-based “emergency” tariffs.
The company argues that the duties are unlawful and states that refund eligibility is not automatic, even if the Supreme Court ultimately rejects the tariff authority, prompting Costco to act now to protect potential recoveries.
According to Benzinga Pro, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent questioned what refund could apply to the company if foreign suppliers had already reduced pre-tariff prices, and that price cuts complicate efforts to calculate reimbursements.
Another Bullish Voice
Rounding out the Street view, Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman also stays constructive, reiterating an Outperform rating and maintaining a $1,100 price target.
COST Price Action: Costco Wholesale shares were down 3.26% at $892.21 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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