Investor optimism is fading ahead of Starbucks Corporation’s (NASDAQ:SBUX) fourth-quarter earnings, with fresh caution building around 2026 expectations.
Oppenheimer analyst Brian Bittner reiterated the Perform rating on Starbucks Corporation. Bittner maintains a cautious stance ahead of October 29, fourth-quarter 2025 earnings.
The analyst notes consensus earnings per share fell 37% over 12 months, with revision risks still lingering. He argues 2026 Street models understate per-store operating costs and assume healthier same-store sales, including +2.2% traffic.
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Guidance Uncertainty Looms
The analyst is uncertain Starbucks will issue 2026 guidance on its fourth-quarter call.
Starbucks typically offers that outlook, yet he cautions this update may slip. Instead, he expects a fuller framework at an Investor Day in early 2026.
In his model, the fourth quarter of 2025 EPS is 55 cents, versus a consensus of 57 cents.
He sees North America same-store sales down 1.0%, versus the Street’s 0.5% decline.
International same-store sales are projected up 2.0%, in line with Street estimates.
The analyst lowers his 2026 EPS to $2.34, second-lowest among 31 analysts, versus $2.59 consensus.
Bittner says management expects faster traffic from its “green apron service” initiative. The plan adds labor hours and tightens operations to boost throughput.
Street models assume 2026 same-store sales include low single-digit positive traffic. That follows a two-year, 9% cumulative traffic decline.
The analyst projects healthier 2026 traffic, yet still below consensus.
He cites tougher competition and lingering price-value concerns.
Bittner’s model shows per-store operating expenses rising about 7% in 2025. He expects mid-single-digit growth in 2026, including $500 million for labor.
Per the analyst, Street underestimates 2026 store opex by only 2.5%.
Every 100 basis points of weekly opex growth trims EPS by roughly 10 cents.
Offsets must come from stronger comps or deeper G&A cuts.
Price Action: SBUX shares were trading lower by 1.31% to $86.07 at last check Tuesday.
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