Starbucks' Green Apron Expansion To Boost Service—But Squeeze Earnings Through 2027

Starbucks Corp's SBUX decision to accelerate the rollout of its Green Apron staffing model to all U.S. stores by year-end will be a headwind to earnings in 2026 and 2027, according to TD Cowen.

The Starbucks Analyst: Analyst Andrew Charles maintained a Hold rating and price target of $90.

The Starbucks Thesis: The Green Apron model will increase labor by 12% across US stores, Charles said in the note.

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The rollout of Assistant Store Managers to all U.S. company-owned stores in mid-2026 will add to the headwind from Green Apron, Charles added.

The earnings estimates for 2026-2028 have been reduced from $2.80 per share to $2.59 per share, from $3.17 per share to $3.00 per share and from $3.81 per share to $3.73 per share, which is now 12% below consensus on average, the analyst stated.

The labor investment is likely to drive sales. Same-store sales estimates for 2026-2028 have been raised to 4% per year, from 3.5% per year, Charles said.

Price Action: At the time of publication on Monday, Starbucks shares had declined by 0.75% to $92.42.

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