Intuit's AI Strategy, Upmarket Gains Fuel Analyst Optimism Following Strong Earnings

Wall Street analysts rerated Intuit Inc INTU after the company reported its third-quarter results on Thursday.

Intuit reported third-quarter revenue of $7.75 billion, up 15%, beating analyst estimates of $7.56 billion. The QuickBooks and TurboTax parent company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $11.65 per share, beating analyst estimates of $10.91 per share.

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Intuit expects fourth-quarter revenue of $3.72 billion-$3.76 billion. The company expects adjusted earnings of $2.63-$2.68 per share.

Piper Sandler analyst Arvind Ramnani reiterated Intuit with a Overweight and raised the price target from $785 to $825.
JP Morgan analyst Mark Murphy maintained Intuit with an Overweight and raised the price target from $660 to $770.
Goldman Sachs analyst Kash Rangan reiterated Intuit with a Buy and raised the price target from $750 to $860.
RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria maintained Intuit with a Outperform and raised the price target from $760 to $850.
Stifel analyst Brad Reback reiterated Intuit with a Buy and raised the price target from $725 to $850.

Piper Sandler: Intuit’s third-quarter results came in well ahead of expectations, with revenues of $7.75 billion ($186 million above) and EPS of $11.65 (+$0.70), Ramnani noted. Growth was driven by Consumer growth of +11% (+9% a year ago), Credit Karma +31% (+8% a year ago), and GBS Online Ecosystem growth of 20% (+20% a year ago; Desktop Ecosystem +18% from +14% last year), the analyst noted.

The company continues to make progress toward the “done for you experiences,” which is powered by AI and automation and now expects TurboTax Live customer growth of +24% for the year and annual TurboTax Live revenue growth of +47%, in part due to an AI-enhanced interface, he said.

JP Morgan: Murphy continues to respect and see long-term potential across Intuit’s multiple franchises and remains constructive on the company’s positive long-term, fundamental trends, particularly as it drives upmarket and infuses AI across its platform.

In the third-quarter results, the analyst expressed a positive tone and an expectation for healthy results despite the firm’s assessment of pedestrian IRS tax filing data. Intuit met and exceeded his expectations with a strong beat and raise, a relatively rare dynamic this earnings season wherein maintained fiscal guidance frameworks have been more common.

Overall, Murphy’s enthusiasm remains highest for the QuickBooks franchise and its upmarket momentum, and this segment remains a durable, on-track, high-growth phenomenon at scale. At the same time, the seasonal TurboTax and volatile Credit Karma businesses provided more fireworks in this particular quarter.

Goldman Sachs: Intuit’s solid third-quarter results, outperforming consensus on revenue (+2%), Consumer (+1%), CK (+25%), and FCFM (+600bps), Rangan noted. The analyst said the stock surge after hours reinforced confidence in the company’s long-term growth profile.

Coming out of Intuit’s tax-heavy quarter, he gave credence to the accelerating momentum in the Assisted category, with TTO Live Revenue growing +47% and now accounting for ~40% of Consumer. Rangan noted this validates TurboTax’s strategic initiatives around product-led growth and refined GTM motion, solidifying its market positioning across the assisted tax landscape and driving adoption as a price disruptor.

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The analyst further underlined Intuit’s continued strength upmarket with QBO Advanced and IES +40% YoY, underscoring its ability to capture share in the much larger and relatively uncontested Mid-Market opportunity (>$89 billion).

Looking ahead, the analyst noted additional upsides from Intuit’s expanding AI roadmap, which introduced AI agents that can unlock incremental upsell and cross-sell opportunities across the product portfolio. As Intuit’s growth algorithm increasingly shifts from higher volume toward higher ARPC, Rangan remained constructive on the company’s ability to unlock larger TAMs and pave a longer runway for durable mid-teens+ topline growth and 35%+ FCFM.

He added that Intuit stands out as a rare asset straddling both consumer and business ecosystems while supplemented by AI prioritization.

RBC Capital: Intuit reported a strong quarterly result driven by lower-quality Credit Karma followed by smaller beats from Consumer and SMB, Jaluria noted. The analyst said that TurboTax Live customers grew 24%, and revenue increased by 47%, driven by the continued success of the assist tax strategy.

He noted Intuit experienced strong monetization across complex and straightforward filers, resulting in a 13% increase in average revenue per return. The company optimized its marketing ROI by focusing on higher-quality customers, reducing “pay nothing” customers to 8 million (down from 10 million+ last year).

Stifel: Intuit delivered strong results across the board that sent the stock up ~8% after hours as the company’s move upmarket gains steam, Reback noted. Consumer Tax grew a better-than-expected 11% as TurboTaxLive grew 47%, and within GBS’ 19% growth, IES/QBOA gained 40% Y/Y, the analyst said.

Management also highlighted a slate of upcoming Agentic offerings with the QB business that should help drive further ARPU gains and increase customer retention, as per the analyst. The lone issue remains Mailchimp as management continues to work through execution challenges, Reback said. However, the analyst noted that the online services segment continues to post strong results powered by the Money platform and Payroll.

Overall, Reback noted results point to momentum in share gains across the assisted tax category that he expects to continue for the foreseeable future, as well as resiliency within the GBS segment (ex. Mailchimp), which should enable the company to sustain near-term low teens total revenue growth over the coming years.

INTU Price Action: INTU stock was up 8.1% at $720.13 on Friday.

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