Analysts Trim Comerica Price Forecasts On Softer Outlook Despite Strong Q1

Several analysts lowered the price forecast for Comerica Incorporated CMA following the release of its first-quarter FY25 results on Monday.

The company posted quarterly earnings of $1.25 per share, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.15 per share and sales of $829.0 million, but missed the consensus estimate of $831.34 million.

Comerica sees FY25 net interest income growth of 5%-7%, average deposits decline of 2%-3%, and average loan decrease of 1%-2% full-year average, or ~flat point to point.

For the second quarter of FY25, the company projects average loans to be slightly lower sequentially (Q/Q) and net interest income to be relatively flat Q/Q.

RBC Capital analyst Jon G. Arfstrom maintained an Outperform rating and lowered the price forecast from $75 to $65.

The analyst writes that first-quarter results aligned with their expectations and those of peers. Margin expansion kept net interest income stable, and both credit trends and expenses were strong, he added.

Arfstrom says that the company’s FY25 outlook reflects softer near-term loan growth, which seems a sensible adjustment amid current macro conditions.

He maintained EPS estimates of $5.30 for 2025 and $5.80 for 2026.

In this environment, Arfstrom expects the bank to keep its CET1 ratio above the 10% target and resume share buybacks resuming in the second quarter.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Christopher McGratty slashed the price target from $77 to $68 while keeping an Outperform rating.

The analyst says that the company reported strong first-quarter results driven by improved PPNR and credit performance.

The revised 2025 outlook suggests roughly a 2% downside to consensus estimates, added McGratty.

Truist Securities analyst Brian Foran slashed the price forecast from $65 to $57 while keeping the Hold rating.

The analyst reduced 2025 EPS estimate by 4% to $5.10 and 2026 EPS estimate by 3% to $5.70.

The revisions reflect lower fee income and slightly softer net interest income, partially offset by reduced expenses and additional share repurchases, Foran added.

Price Action: CMA shares are up 0.79% at $51.00 at the last check Tuesday.

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