Why Did Rigetti Computing Analyst Cut His Price Forecast?

Rigetti Computing, Inc. RGTI shares are surging on Wednesday, reversing from yesterday’s decline.

This week, the company reported first-quarter revenue of $1.47 million, missing analyst estimates of $2.55 million and earnings of 13 cents per share, beating estimates for a loss of 6 cents per share.

Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton lowered the price forecast from $17.00 to $15.00, while keeping a Buy rating.

The analyst writes that revenue fell short of their expectations, pending reauthorization of the DOE Quantum Leadership Act (formerly the NQI).

Bolton highlighted key takeaways, including DARPA’s selection for its QBI program (Stage A) and the $5.48 million AFOSR award for the development of Alternating-Bias-Aided Annealing (ABAA) fabrication technology.

Also Read: Rigetti Scores $4.6 Million UK Grant To Tackle Quantum Error Correction

Bolton stated that the company achieved the optical control of superconducting qubits, which could reduce thermal load and physical footprint in future systems.

Also, the analyst stated that the company’s efforts to increase its U.K. presence with three Innovate U.K. Quantum Mission Pilot Awards and demonstration of optical control of a superconducting qubit, along with completion of Quanta Computer’s $35 million investment.

In the bear case, the analyst points to cash burn risk, which could lead to more capital raises and shareholder dilution.

Bolton slashed revenue estimates to $6.8 million (from $13.5 million) for 2025 and $15.0 million (from $25.0 million) for 2026.

Price Action: RGTI shares are up 19.70% at $11.80 at the last check on Wednesday.

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Photo Courtesy Bartlomiej K. Wroblewski via Shutterstock