Does Workday Have 'Some Pockets Of Strength'? 11 Analysts Look At Q1 Results, Outlook

Zinger Key Points
  • Workday posted subscription revenue growth of 19% Y/Y slightly higher than expected, but cut FY guidance, one analyst said.
  • cRPO growth slowed to 18% Y/Y in FQ1, from 20% in prior quarter, and is expected to ease further to 15%-16% in FQ2, another analyst added.
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Workday Inc WDAY shares tanked in early trading and into the early afternoon of Friday, even after the company reported upbeat earnings for the first quarter.

BofA Securities On Workday

Stifel On Workday

Piper Sandler On Workday

Mizuho Securities On Workday

JPMorgan On Workday

BMO Capital Markets On Workday

DA Davidson On Workday

KeyBanc Capital Markets On Workday

JMP Securities On Workday

Guggenheim Securities On Workday

Needham On Workday

The results came amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways.

Analyst Brad Sills maintained a Buy rating while cutting the price target from $310 to $275.

Workday's quarterly results and outlook were impacted by macro pressure in Europe, Sills said in a note. "Q1 cRPO growth of 18% was in line with guidance, a break from the usual 1-2% point beat," he added.

Management lowered the fiscal 2025 guidance for subscription revenue by $35 million to $7.713 billion, representing 17% growth, the analyst stated. "Softer large new deals and slower headcount growth more broadly were cited as the cause for the weaker outlook," he further wrote.

Analyst Brad Reback reiterated a Hold rating while reducing the price target from $290 to $250.

Workday delivered limited upside in the fiscal first quarter, with slightly higher-than-expected subscription revenue growth of 19% year-on-year, and a 12-month backlog of 18%, in-line with expectations, Reback said. "Management noted continued heightened deal scrutiny, especially in EMEA, as well as lower customer head count renewal levels, both of which management expects to persist through FY25," he added.

While these headwinds resulted in management trimming the full-year subscription revenue guidance, they raised the operating margin expectations by 50 basis points (bps) "on solid operating leverage within the business," the analyst stated. The company is unlikely to reaccelerate to 20% and above subscription growth in the near term, "without more meaningful progress on uphill battles vs. well-entrenched-rivals in large enterprise FINS deals and internationally," he further wrote.

Analyst Brent Bracelin maintained an Overweight rating, while slashing the price target from $330 to $280.

Workday cited two reasons for cutting its growth outlook, namely, intensifying macro headwinds, "evident by more scrutiny on both large deals and net new deals," and slower than expected customer headcount expansion on renewals, which is "unlikely to reverse," Bracelin said.

cRPO growth of 18% year-on-year marked a slowdown from 20% in the previous quarter, while the expectations of it decelerating further to 15%-16% in the second quarter on weaker bookings "is likely to raise broader concerns about the durability of the 17-19% growth targets (three-year)," the analyst added.

Analyst Siti Panigrahi reaffirmed a Buy rating while slashing the price target from $325 to $280.

Although Workday delivered "solid" results, its subscription revenue and backlog beats were lower than expected and management cut the full-year subscription revenue guidance, Panigrahi said.

"While management continues to execute via cross-selling into the base, Workday is seeing elevated deal scrutiny from the broader macro uncertainty while also facing tougher comps due to the strong FY24 renewal cycle," the analyst wrote.

Workday is well-positioned with several core growth drives for the longer term, but the macro "is likely to pressure Workday’s growth over the near-term," he further stated.

Analyst Mark Murphy reiterated an Overweight rating while reducing the price target from $300 to $285.

Workday delivered a modest revenue beat, but cRPO came broadly in-line with expectations and free cash flow below, Murphy said. The company closed fewer large deals versus the same quarter last year, "notably in EMEA," he added.

"Despite incremental macro headwinds, Workday calls out some pockets of strength through product add-ons, as well as outperformance in the healthcare (>50% y/y ACV growth) and public sector (incl. landing the Defense Intelligence Agency) verticals," the analyst wrote.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Analyst Daniel Jester maintained an Outperform rating while lowering the price target from $338 to $300.

Workday's backlog grew to $6.6 billion, missing expectations, and the company cited "longer sales cycles in Europe (specifically large enterprise) and slower-than-expected employee growth impact on contracting when customers renew," Jester said. "Comments from Workday management are consistent with an overall challenging sales landscape noted by many peers," he added.

The macro could continue to slow before any potential improvement in activity later in the year, the analyst stated. "Positively, a core area of management focus has been medium enterprise where trends appear better, along with continued execution in verticals of strength (FINs & Health Care)," he further wrote.

Analyst Gil Luria maintained a Neutral rating while cutting the price target from $260 to $255.

Although Workday delivered a revenue beat, macro weaknesses impacted profitability upside in the quarter, Luria said. The company's lowered full-year guidance reflects "increased deal scrutiny and lower than expected seat count growth," he added.

"Positives this quarter include new business strength in the public sector and healthcare vertical and profitability upside which is expected to flow through the end of the year and contribute an incremental 50bp to Non-GAAP operating margins for FY25 relative to the prior guide," the analyst wrote.

Financial strength will allow the company to pursue "multiple strategic initiatives simultaneously to gain share from incumbents and expand the capabilities of its platform offerings," he further stated.

Analyst Jason Celino reiterated an Overweight rating while reducing the price target from $330 to $275.

Workday reported quarter revenue of $1.99 billion, representing 18.1% year-on-year growth, beating the consensus of $1.97 billion, Celino said, Celino said. Subscription revenue came in slightly higher than expected, he added.

"More importantly, 12-mo. subscription backlog growth of 17.9% came in a touch below consensus of 18.1% and our estimate of 18.0%, the analyst wrote. "Despite better F1Q revenue, Workday saw incremental deal scrutiny, especially in large enterprise, and lower customer headcount growth," he further stated.

Analyst Patrick Walravens maintained a Market Outperform rating and a price target of $315.

Workday reported "mixed" results for the first quarter, Walravens said. Non-GAAP earnings of $1.74 per share came in higher than the consensus of $1.58, but billings growth of 10% missed the consensus of 19% and a 12-month subscription backlog of $6.60 billion came in lower than the Street's $6.61 billion estimate, he added.

"While Workday saw a more challenging quarter in EMEA and felt pressure from renewals with lower headcount than expected, overall we continue to like the company as an attractive opportunity for long-term capital appreciation," the analyst wrote.

Analyst John DiFucci reaffirmed a Sell rating and price target of $190.

"We expect some investors might think the top line guidance is now de-risked (like they did when WDAY initiated FY25 guidance), but they should think again," DiFucci said.

The projections for the fiscal second quarter appear highly challenging, "but we assume management's visibility over the next couple of months can get them there," the analyst stated. "However, having to depend on close rates consistent with F1Q against a larger pipeline that may simply be bloated because of slipped deals (like much of our coverage) does seem risky," he added.

Analyst Scott Berg reiterated a Buy rating and price target of $350.

Workday reported revenue and earnings higher than expected, "but lengthening sales cycles and lower renewal growth led to in line cRPO growth in the quarter and lower cRPO/FY25 subscription revenue guidance for 2QF25," Berg said.

Macro headwinds have led to the downward revision of subscription revenue guidance for fiscal 2025, from $7.725-$7.775 billion to $7.700-$7.725 billion, he added.

WDAY Price Action: Shares of Workday had declined by 14.43% to $223.40 at the time of publication on Friday.

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Posted In: Analyst ColorEarnings MissesPrice TargetReiterationTop StoriesAnalyst RatingsMoversTrading IdeasBMO Capital MarketsBofA SecuritiesBrad RebackBrad SillsBrent BracelinDA DavidsonDaniel JesterExpert IdeasGil LuriaGuggenheim SecuritiesJason CelinoJMP SecuritiesJohn DiFucciJPMorganKeyBanc Capital MarketsMark MurphyMizuho SecuritiesNeedhamPatrick WalravensPiper SandlerScott BergSiti PanigrahisoftwareStifelStories That Matter
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