J.P. Morgan analyst Bill Peterson hosted Plug Power, Inc.'s PLUG CFO, Paul Middleton, and discussed the 2024 outlook and progress around hydrogen production.
Plug reiterated guidance to deliver ~15% of its annual revenue in the first quarter, assuming 10%-15% Y/Y growth (implied ~$150 million vs. consensus $186 million), indicating that first-quarter estimates needed to be further down, says the analyst.
The analyst writes that Plug's revenue profile for the year is expected to remain second-half-weighted, given the build-up from material handling customers ahead of the holiday season and new product platforms launching after going through commissioning and qualification earlier in the year.
The company expects to deploy roughly 300MW-400MW of electrolyzers this year, mainly led by Europe, with additional customer interest beyond this expected to unlock once the PTC guidance is finalized, writes the analyst.
Given a favorable energy contract in place, the company expects to produce hydrogen at $4-$5/kg (pre-PTC) on average and potentially even lower at $3/kg from its future Texas plant, says Peterson.
With 40 TPD of capacity between 3 plants expected by the end of the year coupled with price increases pushed to customers, fuel margins could improve sequentially from second-quarter onwards.
This week, in an exchange filing, the company said it has entered into agreements to exchange existing notes for new convertible senior notes.
Price Action: PLUG shares are trading higher by 0.45% at $3.35 on the last check Friday.
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